Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein, also known as Kene G and Jack Dempsey, born June 1969, is an American film and television writer, producer, director and occasional actor. He is a co-founder of Planet illogica and CEO of The Six Shooter Company and the author of the book series, The Way of the Nerd. Goldstein is an active speaker at conferences and festivals, universities and private and public institutions. He has been a featured and Keynote speaker in Brazil, Australia, France and Germany...
certainly consistent earlier economic employment half income less pace past performance period point robust small
The small but consistent decreases in the past three-month period certainly point to a second-half economic performance less robust than in the first half of 2000. With employment and income still rising, there will be growth, but not at the pace set earlier in the year.
continued growth leading momentum performance suggestive
The performance of the leading index is suggestive of continued momentum or growth in the spring.
cooling domestic expected grew gross last leading pace performance product quarter rapid registered second
The leading indicators are cooling off from the rapid pace registered at the end of last year. This is not the kind of performance to be expected when gross domestic product grew by 5.2 percent, as it did in the second quarter of 2000.
declines hiring might seeing small year
We might still be seeing some small declines in manufacturing overall, but even that's a mix. This year you'll see more hiring in nondurable manufacturing sectors such as in chemicals, in rubber, in plastics, in paper.
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The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes, ... That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.
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These data suggest the post-holiday labor market will remain relatively soft -- probably delivering a little less than 200,000 new jobs a month on average.
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The storms and flooding, and now the rebuilding and dislocations in the Gulf Coast area, are taking place in a weakening national labor market.
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The strong signal from the indicators means that the recession could be over soon. Three successive monthly increases, each larger than the one before, bring the level of the leading series above the pre-recession peak.
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The spike in energy prices is another major factor changing the direction of the economy, worsened by a decline in confidence by both consumers and chief executives.
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The significant increase in the leading indicators during the last six months, tempered only by the financially related pause in February, points to forward momentum in this expansion.
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Essentially the story is we have got moderate growth through the first quarter. We may tick up in the second quarter and we may tick down in the third quarter. Growth is going to be a little slower second half of the year.
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Productivity is the wild card. It's the one thing that has kept the tension between prices and wages on a low simmer.
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Both investment and hiring intentions reflect a level of caution over both pricing and profit strategies.
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The tax cuts are being proposed as permanent cuts,