Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein, also known as Kene G and Jack Dempsey, born June 1969, is an American film and television writer, producer, director and occasional actor. He is a co-founder of Planet illogica and CEO of The Six Shooter Company and the author of the book series, The Way of the Nerd. Goldstein is an active speaker at conferences and festivals, universities and private and public institutions. He has been a featured and Keynote speaker in Brazil, Australia, France and Germany...
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The labor market remains on a high plateau that has prevailed in the last year and a half.
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The trend, though, in Columbus is picking up over the last few months.
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The significant increase in the leading indicators during the last six months, tempered only by the financially related pause in February, points to forward momentum in this expansion.
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The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.
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We've seen the trade deficit widen each of the last four years at relatively the same pace. What's going to happen because of Asian flu is it will widen twice as fast this year as it did each of the last four years.
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Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.
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The leading indicators are cooling off from the rapid pace registered at the end of last year. This is not the kind of performance to be expected when gross domestic product grew by 5.2 percent, as it did in the second quarter of 2000.
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The Leading Economic Index, however, rose sharply in three of the last four months. That could be a signal of a faster pace this spring.
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The economy is growing now, but not as fast as it did last year before the hurricanes.
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In all of the data, the road is up, but we're going to hit a couple of speed bumps along the way. I'm not sure the Michigan index is reflecting anything more serious than one of those speed bumps.
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The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion, which in June will be in its record 111th month, remains the interest-rate increases at hand and the prospect of still more action by the Federal Reserve Board, ... The data suggest that some sectors may be beginning to respond to Fed tightening.
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The balance will eventually change, but these numbers suggest the caution businesses have been showing is warranted. They also say we might be waiting until early 2004 before we see much stronger business investment.
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This is confirming the idea that, while the stock market's not in good shape, the overall economy's not in bad shape; it's nowhere near going into a double dip.
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The Fed will act sooner rather than later, more rather than less,