Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein, also known as Kene G and Jack Dempsey, born June 1969, is an American film and television writer, producer, director and occasional actor. He is a co-founder of Planet illogica and CEO of The Six Shooter Company and the author of the book series, The Way of the Nerd. Goldstein is an active speaker at conferences and festivals, universities and private and public institutions. He has been a featured and Keynote speaker in Brazil, Australia, France and Germany...
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The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes, ... That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.
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These data suggest the post-holiday labor market will remain relatively soft -- probably delivering a little less than 200,000 new jobs a month on average.
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The three things that most concern consumers are jobs, jobs and jobs.
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The number of job ads per 100 participants in the labor force is consistently highest on the West and East coasts and in the Mountain area.
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Consumer sentiment about job prospects over the next six months dipped in January. Thus, not only are the indicators suggesting modest gains in hiring, but consumers also do not think more new jobs will start opening up this spring.
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That's about as good as it gets for the next six months. We're about to downshift at least one gear, especially with respect to the job market.
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That's about as good as it gets for the next six months, ... We're about to downshift at least one gear, especially with respect to the job market.
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There are a lot of factors here, but more than anything else, we haven't had a full jobs recovery, and the consumer is waiting for that. These numbers reflect they're kind of running out of patience.
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The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.
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Today's conditions are similar to those prevailing in the late 1980s, when there were also widespread reports of jobs available and no one to fill them.
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Add this to the negative impact of the hurricanes and flooding, resulting in lost jobs and incomes, and lost output, and we could be in for slower growth through the end of the year.
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I think we are going to get consistent job growth. The signals we're getting suggest we're on the road to better growth. Unless something else happens, then perhaps in a few months, we will finally get some good news in the labor market.
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Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.
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The labor market picture remains a bit cloudy. There are some bright spots where the job market may be picking up, but it's by no means a clear picture.