John Davidson

John Davidson
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I believe this will still prove to be true, but there's fear that if the economic recovery is slowing, stocks may not catch up as soon.
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This week they're worried more about the earnings warnings. The lack of the upward drive has allowed the stocks to drift lower.
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This was certainly a surprise. It's definitely spooked stocks and raised worries about whether consumer spending, which is responsible for around two-thirds of the economy, is going to slow down, and how that will impact the recovery.
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This was certainly a surprise, ... It's definitely spooked stocks and raised worries about whether consumer spending, which is responsible for around two-thirds of the economy, is going to slow down, and how that will impact the recovery.
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Where does the bond guy put his money now? ... Stocks can absorb inflation more readily than bonds, because you can come through with better pricing power and stronger earnings.
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Despite the decline, the ISM report was very positive, and what you can take away from it is that the economy is continuing to expand. The question for 2004 is whether that continued expansion has already been reflected in the 25 percent returns you saw in stocks last year.
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I think we're in a good earnings season. So far, of the S&P 500, 139 companies have reported. Over 60 percent have been upward surprises, only 8 percent of them have really been negative surprises. So we're in a strong earnings season. That's good for the stock market, ... I think the market's in a trading range right now. I don't think it's going straight up from here. I don't think necessarily we're going to get a big summer rally, but maybe a positive tone to the market.
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If stocks keep deteriorating and the Fed were to cut rates in a coordinated response with the Bank of England, you could see some short-term positive response,
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The Federal Reserve's objective is two fold -- price stability and employment growth. All too often we think it's the Fed chairman's job to manage the stock market, when it's not.
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For the last several weeks, the market has gotten ahead of the economic news. You're seeing that with the jobs report this morning. For stocks to continue to climb, you need to see the economic news start to catch up.
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The capacity utilization and industrial production number are forecast to show modest improvement, the housing number won't be as strong as it has been, but it'll still be strong. However, none of these data due tomorrow are really market-moving. I think stocks may be set to drift the rest of this week and into the close of the year.
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I've talked about Key Energy Group for a while, and Capstone is one of the companies that's building these micro turbines that I think actually just reported last week and had a more negative number than expected because they've ramped up some of their production, As a result, that hit their expense line, ... But I think that's a good idea going forward.
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Energy's off a little bit today, but it doesn't mean that energy is going back down. We're starting into an earnings season and earnings will start to have an effect.
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Earnings have been strong and will continue to be strong, but there's a worry that rising rates will mean the multiple on the earnings will be less.