John Davidson
John Davidson
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I think we'll close the year in positive territory. But in the next few weeks you're going to see the market in a continued struggle back and forth with people trying to determine whether we have a full economic recovery, even with the labor market struggling.
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CPI and PPI next week could be a little light, so that might get some attention,
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Even just a month ago, prior to the release of the March payrolls number, there were some investors betting that rates wouldn't rise until early next year. Now, after two months of higher payrolls, it seems likely rates are set to rise, and so there's a certain throwing in of the towel for some investors.
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I think investors need to invest. I think the risk of being out of the market and missing the upturn is important. As we go down the road, I think we're going to get further increases. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check. But I think your long term investment is going to really grow in the market and technology will lead that.
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Bush needs pretty quickly to turn this economy around. If we languish for the next two years, it'll be the last two years of Bush's presidency.
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If you're out of the market you need to be in the market if you're saving for your long-term retirement or for other elements, ... People have been waiting on the sidelines, not committing as much new money. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check, but your long-term investment is going to really grow in the market, and technology will lead that.
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If you look out into next week, you've got the weapons report from inspectors due and the current view is that people may be reluctant to put money to work ahead of that.
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But I think people's focus next week is not going to be Wall Street, it's going to be the holidays. I think you'll see a modestly up week.
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The market has now fully reflected its belief in a second-half pick up, but for the kind of rally we've seen to continue, you're going to need to start seeing evidence. The weekly jobless claims number this morning is a start, but it's not enough. We could be bouncing around in the next few weeks.
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What they say may have an impact tomorrow, but the dominant topic on investors' minds right now starts with an 'I' and it's not Intel. Both businesses and consumers are hesitant to make any moves until there's progress on Iraq.
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What's limiting us on the upside is the double-digit gains we saw in 2003. What limits us to the downside is that the economy continues to strengthen, although concerns about the job market persist.
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The ongoing issues are the strength of the economy and whether or not the pace of the recovery is in fact slowing down. One of the important things this week will be to see the extent of the damage.
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With thirty bob a week to keep a bride / He fell in love and married in his teens: / At thirty bob he stuck; but he knows it isn't luck: / He knows the seas are deeper than tureens.
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With Vice President Cheney saying we need 38,000 more miles, in addition to repairing existing ones, that Key Energy group is a key player there,