Joe Osha
Joe Osha
believe coming forced intel pressure pricing respond
We believe that Intel will be forced to respond competitively to AMD in the coming year, which may put more pressure on Intel's pricing than we had expected.
bit business capacity case correction declare demand focus growing investment percent pricing quite relationship revenue scare seen slightly spending stocks summer though time visibility wireless
We've seen investment in capacity go up quite a bit and we had a scare this summer with wireless. So you can make a case that the business is in trouble. We try to focus on slightly longer-term fundamentals. The relationship between spending and revenue in this business is still reasonable. Visibility is still good. Pricing is good. Let's not forget, wireless handset demand is growing 50 percent over year-on-year. So with stocks down a bit and the fundamentals still solid, we though it was time to declare the mid-cycle correction over.
accumulate believe continue despite forecast intel margin meet neutral pricing remarks revenue
Despite our conservative remarks on margin compression and pricing intensity, we continue to believe Intel will meet our revenue forecast and reiterate our intermediate-term neutral and long-term accumulate rating.
aggressive allow build continue intel market pricing rather respond suspect
We suspect that Intel will, at some point, respond with aggressive pricing rather than allow AMD to continue to build market presence.
choices consequences design expensive last november resulted seeing wrote
We wrote last November that Sony's design choices for the PS3 had resulted in an expensive and difficult-to-manufacture product, and we think that we're seeing the consequences of those choices play out now.
believe completed intel largely prior quarter shipping
We believe that Intel had largely completed shipping its quarter prior to Sept. 11.
company incapable intel mean
Just because Intel has faltered does not mean the company is now incapable of executing.
believe continue cycle internet investment second year
We continue to believe that we are in the second year of a 5- to 7-year investment cycle in Internet infrastructure.
apply believe blunt continue desktop effort further intel markets mobile negative pressure result shares
We continue to believe Intel will apply competitive pressure to AMD in the desktop and mobile markets in an effort to blunt further shares gains, even if the result is negative for Intel's own profitability in 2006.
appears company difficulty earnings growth high imagining investor level moving percent raise rate recovery stock sufficient
Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor expectations, to a level sufficient to keep the stock moving up.
adjustment expect fact gains given impact low market negatively next numbers product share stock surprised
We are not too surprised by AMD's announcement and do not expect the adjustment to numbers to impact the stock negatively at this point. Given the fact that AMD's product lineup at the low end of the market is more competitive than Intel's, we expect to see market share gains in the first part of next year.
effect
It's not going to effect the company's position.
believe build corrects december estimates high inventory next quarter sometime
While we believe that our December 2000 quarter estimates are intact, we believe that there is a high probability that the inventory build corrects sometime over the next two quarters.
earnings estimate expensive growth intel prospects relative
At 27 times our 2003 earnings estimate Intel is still expensive relative to its growth prospects and its own history.