Joe Osha
Joe Osha
appears building data dominant inventory less points question result stocks whether worries
One of the dominant worries here is the question of whether we're going to see any building of inventory that will result in 1Q weakening. But as the data points have rolled in, that appears to be less and less the case. That's pretty important, and you can see it, in particular, in some of the communications stocks that are moving.
consumer discrete graphics holidays processing push sales selling suffer unit
Without the consumer Vista push for the 2006 holidays selling season, we think that discrete graphics processing unit sales could suffer slightly.
driven fact growth intel market positive pushing reason stock
The reason I am positive on the stock right now is the fact they are pushing into servers, workstations -- the things that are being driven by growth in the Internet. That is a big market that Intel can dominate, I think, pretty quickly.
estimates march points raising strength
We're not raising our estimates for the March quarter, but the strength at Motorola points to the possibility of upside.
believe build corrects december estimates high inventory next quarter sometime
While we believe that our December 2000 quarter estimates are intact, we believe that there is a high probability that the inventory build corrects sometime over the next two quarters.
effect
It's not going to effect the company's position.
although began believe evidence hard highs hitting late next prices sector stock strongly support
It is very hard to find any evidence of a real end to the upturn that began in late 1998. Although we see little to support semiconductor stock prices during the next two months, we strongly believe that the sector will be hitting new highs before the end of the year.
adopted billion fairly harder loaded practice since wide
It's a little harder in June, because this is an especially back-end loaded quarter. But even so, $6.4 billion to $7 billion is a fairly wide range, and since they've been doing this mid-quarter update, they have adopted the practice of narrowing it down.
bit business capacity case correction declare demand focus growing investment percent pricing quite relationship revenue scare seen slightly spending stocks summer though time visibility wireless
We've seen investment in capacity go up quite a bit and we had a scare this summer with wireless. So you can make a case that the business is in trouble. We try to focus on slightly longer-term fundamentals. The relationship between spending and revenue in this business is still reasonable. Visibility is still good. Pricing is good. Let's not forget, wireless handset demand is growing 50 percent over year-on-year. So with stocks down a bit and the fundamentals still solid, we though it was time to declare the mid-cycle correction over.
believe coming forced intel pressure pricing respond
We believe that Intel will be forced to respond competitively to AMD in the coming year, which may put more pressure on Intel's pricing than we had expected.
believe completed intel largely prior quarter shipping
We believe that Intel had largely completed shipping its quarter prior to Sept. 11.
choices consequences design expensive last november resulted seeing wrote
We wrote last November that Sony's design choices for the PS3 had resulted in an expensive and difficult-to-manufacture product, and we think that we're seeing the consequences of those choices play out now.
added although capacity change companies fourth happening less negative past rate terms themselves worst
What we see happening is a bottoming to the rate of change in the semiconductor business, which has been negative and less capacity being added by the fourth quarter, which is also good. So, although companies themselves are still very conservative we think that the worst is past in terms of the downturn here.
both business decline dramatic flash leaving memory overall pick quarter rate second top
The rate of decline for both the flash memory and communications business in the second quarter could be more dramatic than the overall top line, leaving it to the microprocessor business to pick up the slack.