Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
bank companies consumers content cranking happy passing pressure price rather reserve result retailers sit wearing
The Reserve Bank will be happy with this result and be content to sit on the sidelines. Companies are wearing some of the price pressure rather than passing it on. When consumers are tightening their purses, retailers don't want to be cranking up prices.
commodity gradually peak prices pushed timing
We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit.
certainly demand export hoping plenty prices product rebound shaky sustained volumes
We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there.
across faster hit input means output prices production rising stages taking
Input prices are rising a lot faster than output prices, which means manufacturers across all stages of production are taking a hit to their margins.
ahead confidence consumer further home house oil prices weakness
There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.
advantage australian continue interest narrow weigh
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.
economy economy-and-economics employment forward interest likely rate rates rising weaker
Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.
building capacity corporate driver growth home household principal replaced spending
Corporate spending, particularly in mining, has replaced household spending and home building as the principal driver of growth in the economy. It will also alleviate capacity constraints in the economy.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
building consumer economic growth home rotation sources spending
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way.
fully hike rate
A rate hike is now 50-50 in May and fully priced by June.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.