Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
below exports market
It's a pretty disappointing number, much below market expectations and our own. Exports were particularly disappointing.
certainly demand export hoping plenty prices product rebound shaky sustained volumes
We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there.
capacity capital continue exports highlights investment report struggling third
Exports are struggling to get traction. The monthly report highlights the capacity constraints in Australia. We need a lot more capital investment to alleviate the bottlenecks. Exports will continue to take away from GDP in the third quarter.
area domestic economy economy-and-economics exports given needs performance prolonged sluggish unwelcome
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy.
capacity clearly demand domestic easing expecting exports pick seeing slack
We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.
australian concern consumer depending economy exports growth slack spending transition
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.
advantage australian continue interest narrow weigh
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.
economy economy-and-economics employment forward interest likely rate rates rising weaker
Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.
building capacity corporate driver growth home household principal replaced spending
Corporate spending, particularly in mining, has replaced household spending and home building as the principal driver of growth in the economy. It will also alleviate capacity constraints in the economy.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
building consumer economic growth home rotation sources spending
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way.
fully hike rate
A rate hike is now 50-50 in May and fully priced by June.