Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
economy economy-and-economics employment forward interest likely rate rates rising weaker
Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.
building consumer economic growth home rotation sources spending
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way.
area domestic economy economy-and-economics exports given needs performance prolonged sluggish unwelcome
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy.
add annual australia cash economic fall forecast inflation numbers rate recent soft unchanged
Recent soft economic numbers for Australia and the fall in the annual rate of inflation add up to an unchanged cash rate on Wednesday. In fact, we forecast an unchanged rate for all of 2006.
alter downside economic growth large outlook surprise
The downside surprise on economic growth was not large enough to alter the outlook significantly.
advantage australian continue interest narrow weigh
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.
building capacity corporate driver growth home household principal replaced spending
Corporate spending, particularly in mining, has replaced household spending and home building as the principal driver of growth in the economy. It will also alleviate capacity constraints in the economy.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
fully hike rate
A rate hike is now 50-50 in May and fully priced by June.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.
business capital credit few good growth last needed positive quite rebound strong weak
Business credit growth had been quite weak for the last few months, so a good strong rebound in business borrowings is a positive for capital expenditure, which is needed in Australia.
below exports market
It's a pretty disappointing number, much below market expectations and our own. Exports were particularly disappointing.