Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernsteinis a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden in the Obama Administration. Bernstein's appointment was considered to represent a progressive perspective and "to provide a strong advocate for workers"...
adding beginning drive labor line looking market numbers picking recovery simply situation suggest top
These top line numbers suggest we are into what's beginning to look like a jobless recovery. We simply can't drive unemployment down if we're only adding 30 or 40,000 jobs. So, basically, we're looking at a situation where the recovery is calling, but the labor market isn't really picking up the phone.
coming fairly finding folks growth jobs labor looking low pace weak
Folks are coming back into the labor market, but they're not finding jobs there. The tepid pace of job growth was too low to keep unemployment from rising. We're looking at a fairly weak recovery, at least initially.
fewer force labor lead looking lower negative people reason ticked
This is a pretty negative report. The reason unemployment ticked down is the labor force contracted. That suggests fewer people are getting into the game, looking for work, and that kind of discouragement can lead to a lower unemployment rate.
looking maybe wrong
Maybe we were looking under the wrong rock.
congress issue katrina looking motivate others silver tragedy
I and others have been looking desperately for silver linings in this tragedy and if Katrina were to motivate Congress to look at this issue seriously, that would be great.
looking recovery
We're looking at a recession/jobless recovery that's two years old to the day.
based best excesses hope looking lower maybe next percent quarter rate second
Maybe by the second quarter of next year, we'll be looking at some lower unemployment rate -- say in the 5 to 5.5 percent range, if we're lucky. But that would be the best to hope for, and it's based on our working through these excesses that persist.
claims history katrina largest looking month negative next shown
Clearly, Katrina hasn't shown up in the jobless claims yet, but it will, ... Next month, we're going to be looking at one of the largest one month negative spikes in the history of this series, going back to the '30s.
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This report may give pause to some of the optimists looking for a stronger second half, ... We need a real boost if we're going to reverse some of these trends that are even more negative than we thought they were.
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Firms have to be very concerned about rising prices. They're protecting their profit margins. They're going to be looking at every nook and cranny to absorb this increase.
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These numbers reveal a labor market that's not bouncing back quickly enough to absorb new entrants along with the people laid off during the downturn.
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The consumer's been doing a fine job, but we can't keep tapping them and expect them to get us out of a jobless recovery. That's why lots of people on both sides of the aisle are asking for fiscal stimulus.
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I'm definitely ready to believe that the rate of job loss has slowed and that soon we will be adding jobs. The question is, will we be adding enough to keep unemployment from rising?
half month optimistic
I'm more optimistic than I was a month and a half ago,