Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernsteinis a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden in the Obama Administration. Bernstein's appointment was considered to represent a progressive perspective and "to provide a strong advocate for workers"...
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This is what a healthy job market looks like ? we just haven't seen it for a long while, so it makes inflation hawks nervous.
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This is very much the type of job report you would expect coming off a strong quarter.
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A number of other reports suggest the labor market is finally hitting its stride, one weekly claims number is not enough to undermine that conclusion.
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Any large fall in labor force participation at this point suggests that the labor market is not growing out of recession, but rather that discouraged job seekers are giving up, or not beginning, their job search.
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This is a pretty negative report. The reason unemployment ticked down is the labor force contracted. That suggests fewer people are getting into the game, looking for work, and that kind of discouragement can lead to a lower unemployment rate.
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This is a tremendously detailed, comprehensive look at the American family's balance sheet and it ain't pretty.
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This isn't an administration that wakes up and says 'what can we do for the working class family today,'
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The weakness in the labor market is clearly reducing the growth of earnings, meaning consumers, most of who depend on their paychecks, are likely to remain insecure about where the economy is headed. This in turn has the potential to constrain consumption growth, limiting the boost that the economy will get from the recent tax cut, and delaying the arrival of a truly self-sustaining recovery.
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This could mean that the labor market is another area coming on line in the nation's recovery.
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This doesn't look like a significantly different report than we've gotten in past months, but that's significant in itself. The labor market is clearly stuck in neutral.
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One good month based on a swing in the C.P.I. does nothing to change this negative trajectory.
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A fundamental principle of our economic system is that the benefits of economic growth will flow to those responsible for their creation. When how fast your income grows depends on your position in the income scale, this principle is violated. In that sense, today's unprecedented gap between the growth of the typical family's income and productivity is our most pressing economic problem.
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I think the fingerprints of a faltering job market are all over this report. We've got more people working, but they're failing to get ahead.
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Lawmakers need to focus on stimulus, and this report is really a wake-up call in that regard.