Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernsteinis a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden in the Obama Administration. Bernstein's appointment was considered to represent a progressive perspective and "to provide a strong advocate for workers"...
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These are workers who have the weakest bargaining leverage and are most likely to be exploited, particularly in a period where you have a weak labor demand and a large labor supply.
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Any large fall in labor force participation at this point suggests that the labor market is not growing out of recession, but rather that discouraged job seekers are giving up, or not beginning, their job search.
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It's unprecedented. There is a large and growing gap between how the economy is performing and the living standards of the people stoking the engine.
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Clearly, Katrina hasn't shown up in the jobless claims yet, but it will, ... Next month, we're going to be looking at one of the largest one month negative spikes in the history of this series, going back to the '30s.
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However, a far larger gap exists when we compare net worth: minorities' net worth was about 27 percent of whites, about half the size of the income ratio.
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These numbers reveal a labor market that's not bouncing back quickly enough to absorb new entrants along with the people laid off during the downturn.
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These top line numbers suggest we are into what's beginning to look like a jobless recovery. We simply can't drive unemployment down if we're only adding 30 or 40,000 jobs. So, basically, we're looking at a situation where the recovery is calling, but the labor market isn't really picking up the phone.
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The consumer's been doing a fine job, but we can't keep tapping them and expect them to get us out of a jobless recovery. That's why lots of people on both sides of the aisle are asking for fiscal stimulus.
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I'm definitely ready to believe that the rate of job loss has slowed and that soon we will be adding jobs. The question is, will we be adding enough to keep unemployment from rising?
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I'm more optimistic than I was a month and a half ago,
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Inequality is growing in all parts of the country.
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In a strong economy, hours and output can both grow, so long as output grows at a faster rate, thus resulting in productivity growth. But... productivity can also grow in a slowdown or recession, when a decline in hours outpaces weak or nonexistent output growth.
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I'm not sure this report convinces us that a recovery is underway in the labor market in any big way.
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It's too soon to call this a 'jobless' recovery, ... but another quarter or two of these types of reports, and that probably will be a relevant title.