Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
bond debate higher market oil prices restraint whether
There has been this continual debate as to whether higher oil prices are inflationary or a restraint on growth. This year, the bond market has signaled that it is inflationary.
believe economic fed improving infer jobs moderate oil past perhaps prices somewhat statement time
I would infer from the statement that the Fed is somewhat more sanguine on the economic recovery. Perhaps they believe that $55 oil prices are, at least for the time being, something of the past and that jobs are just improving at a moderate pace.
bigger economy history impact improvement interest lazy looking market oil prices rates seeing services shown stock tick
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
chief corporate growth low strong
When you have strong growth and low wages, the chief beneficiary is corporate America.
active business future longer sector
We're no longer in a buy-and-hold environment. You have to be much more active in sector allocation. That's where the future of this business is going.
leading names phenomenal seen stocks
We've come off a phenomenal July. And we've seen a real reversal in the stocks that were leading the market, with economically-sensitive names doing well.
growth job mark number previous projected strong
The projected job growth number would mark a pretty strong snapback from the previous month.
cause commit continues error fed financial since time worry
What I worry about is that if the Fed continues to tighten, they could commit the same error they have done every time since 1980 and cause a financial crisis.
options
You have to look at all the options you have available, from A to Z.
backdrop inflation leading market nice subdued
Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
although energy fed guidance higher key looking might prices profit rolling signs
But the key here is really going to be guidance. Everyone is looking for signs of the rolling over of profit growth, although not as much as the Fed or higher energy prices might indicate.
bounce clear indication light moves week
With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
base fear form maybe rally
Maybe now there's enough fear out there to form a base to rally again.
backdrop creating fed four interest last low played
Over the last four years the Fed has played the part of a surrealistic painter, creating a dreamy backdrop with generously low interest rates.