Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
bond debate higher market oil prices restraint whether
There has been this continual debate as to whether higher oil prices are inflationary or a restraint on growth. This year, the bond market has signaled that it is inflationary.
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But the key here is really going to be guidance. Everyone is looking for signs of the rolling over of profit growth, although not as much as the Fed or higher energy prices might indicate.
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Any bad news can throw us, and the jobs report was perceived as bad news, seen as a sign that the recovery is fragile, but that's not necessarily true. In the last two recessions, a pickup in employment only happened a year after the recession had ended. So just because unemployment is higher doesn't mean we're not on track for a recovery.
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With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
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The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
creating earnings engine environment market
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
information taking work
There's really not a lot of information here to work with, and I think the market's taking a rest.
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Right now, we have this positive confluence of earnings and economic news that has been propelling the market.
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Right now, the transparency we had with (former Chairman Alan) Greenspan is gone. We're trying to get some semblance of which way the Fed is going to go.
basis market points raising rates shock
Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
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People are taking some comfort in results and a feeling that the economy is getting better, but there's still some caution. We need to see more evidence of a sustainable recovery. We need companies to start seeing profits more through top-line growth than just cost-cutting measures.
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Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
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The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
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Confidence is slipping, manufacturing is slowing, and even with today's jobs report, the employment trend is still negative. The bet here is that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising rates in order to keep the economy from sliding further.