Frank Nothaft
Frank Nothaft
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As the economy continues to show signs that the recession is ending, the housing market continues to expand thanks, in large part, to current low mortgage rates. And as long as inflation is not an issue in the economy, lending rates should remain around 7 percent.
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Bond yields have been creeping up on an almost daily basis since the beginning of October, pushing mortgage rates up as they go, ... Inflation remains low, however, and we expect that to continue into 2004 and beyond. And as long as it does, we won't see mortgage rates rising very dramatically.
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Mortgage rates remained fairly stable this week as the financial markets tried to discern just how quickly the economy is growing and how sustainable that growth will be.
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Mortgage rates continued to set records. Interest rates remain the lowest in Freddie Mac history; indeed, they are the lowest we have seen since 1967.
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With mortgage rates low and consumer confidence high, Freddie Mac economists expect the housing market to remain strong in the months ahead.
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With the unemployment rate at a low of 4.3 percent and mortgage rates remaining at present affordable levels, we expect the housing market to continue to be strong into the coming months.
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The new home sales rate has remained robust for a good many months already. Certainly adding to the level of sales in the past six-to-12 months has been a very favorable level of mortgage rates, which are basically hovering around 7 percent.
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Currently the market is focusing on an anticipated economic recovery within the next six months. That focus put some upward pressure on mortgage rates this week, causing them to rise. There remains good volatility though, due to market speculation over exactly when and how strong the rebound will be.
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It was no great surprise that housing starts rose for the second time in three months since mortgage rates in November reached levels not seen since the mid-1960s. Since mortgage rates are not expected to increase significantly, we remain confident that the housing industry will continue to be alive and active well into 2003.
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The escalating tensions within the U.N. over the impending resolution on Iraq and dismal economic news this week sent the stock market tumbling and with it went bond and mortgage rates. The high volatility is likely to remain for a while. But since there are no upward pressures at the moment, any sustained rise in rates in highly unlikely.
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With productivity up and inflationary pressures muted, the Federal Reserve Board elected this week not to change a key short-term interest rate. Moreover, most other economic data releases, such as unemployment and manufacturing, painted a slightly negative picture for future economic growth. These factors combined to keep mortgage rates stable.
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Financial markets are feeling more confident that the Fed will not raise rates any time soon. Add to that the fact that recent economic data shows core inflation is less than the market expects, and we see mortgage rates drop once again.
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Both existing home sales in June and housing starts in July took a breather, dropping to somewhat more sustainable levels of activity,
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Mortgage rates have been under 7 percent for the past eight weeks,