Frank Nothaft
Frank Nothaft
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With productivity up and inflationary pressures muted, the Federal Reserve Board elected this week not to change a key short-term interest rate. Moreover, most other economic data releases, such as unemployment and manufacturing, painted a slightly negative picture for future economic growth. These factors combined to keep mortgage rates stable.
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Financial markets are feeling more confident that the Fed will not raise rates any time soon. Add to that the fact that recent economic data shows core inflation is less than the market expects, and we see mortgage rates drop once again.
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Following the onset of the Iraqi conflict, financial markets seem to have an upward bias for mortgage rates. However, that's not to say that uncertainty has diminished in any large way, but that it has shifted to a different set of unknowns.
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Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.
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It was no great surprise that housing starts rose for the second time in three months since mortgage rates in November reached levels not seen since the mid-1960s. Since mortgage rates are not expected to increase significantly, we remain confident that the housing industry will continue to be alive and active well into 2003.
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The Producer Price Index for April, released today, showed a considerably larger decline than had been expected, reaffirming market concerns about the state of the economy. However, the Consumer Price Index for April that will come out tomorrow will give us a much more comprehensive picture of what is actually happening.
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There is a slight chance the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates when it meets later this month, but with the current labor market and slowing consumer spending, it is more likely that it will take no action until August at the earliest. As a result, short-term interest rates, such as the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, drifted further down this week.
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Today's annual average mortgage rates are below even that projection thanks to the spring 'soft-patch' in economic growth.
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Over the last couple of years, we've seen many markets with strong home value appreciation. They're up at a considerable pace in many markets across the country, particularly from New England all the way down to Washington, D.C., ... Home values are up in D.C., for example, by over 10 percent over the past year. That means families have built up home equity.
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There seems to be some concern in the marketplace that the economic recovery will be slower than expected , lessening the fear of inflation. As a matter of fact, personal income and consumer spending growth for the first quarter were moderate and showed inflation to be well constrained.
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There was little activity during this holiday week to move mortgage rates one way or another,
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There was no news this week that would drive mortgage rates in one direction or the other. Therefore, mortgage rates didn't have much reason to move a lot, staying below 7 percent for the second week running.
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There's about $6 trillion in single-family mortgage debt outstanding, and total home value is about $13 trillion, which means there's about $7 trillion in home equity outstanding. Last year was a big year for liquefying home equity -- about $100 billion. That's a drop in the bucket compared to $7 trillion.
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Anticipation that the Federal Reserve may well cut rates at its next meeting, combined with further weakness in certain sectors of the economy, caused interest rates to fall again.