Frank Nothaft
Frank Nothaft
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Currently the market is focusing on an anticipated economic recovery within the next six months. That focus put some upward pressure on mortgage rates this week, causing them to rise. There remains good volatility though, due to market speculation over exactly when and how strong the rebound will be.
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Mortgage interest rates were up this week on news that February employment figures suggested an economic upturn. That news, however, puts a bit of upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates.
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There seems to be some concern in the marketplace that the economic recovery will be slower than expected , lessening the fear of inflation. As a matter of fact, personal income and consumer spending growth for the first quarter were moderate and showed inflation to be well constrained.
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Financial markets are feeling more confident that the Fed will not raise rates any time soon. Add to that the fact that recent economic data shows core inflation is less than the market expects, and we see mortgage rates drop once again.
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With productivity up and inflationary pressures muted, the Federal Reserve Board elected this week not to change a key short-term interest rate. Moreover, most other economic data releases, such as unemployment and manufacturing, painted a slightly negative picture for future economic growth. These factors combined to keep mortgage rates stable.
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Today's annual average mortgage rates are below even that projection thanks to the spring 'soft-patch' in economic growth.
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The escalating tensions within the U.N. over the impending resolution on Iraq and dismal economic news this week sent the stock market tumbling and with it went bond and mortgage rates. The high volatility is likely to remain for a while. But since there are no upward pressures at the moment, any sustained rise in rates in highly unlikely.
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The new home sales rate has remained robust for a good many months already. Certainly adding to the level of sales in the past six-to-12 months has been a very favorable level of mortgage rates, which are basically hovering around 7 percent.
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The Federal Reserve's recent cut in interest rates and a continued concern over weakness in the overall economy contributed to another drop in mortgage rates this week. In spite of the slowdown in other sectors and a lessening of consumer confidence, declining mortgage rates since the first of the year have helped to support housing activity.
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The Consumer Price Index released this week showed no decline, suggesting that the possibility of deflation is still low. Housing starts were stronger than expected, as were the leading indicators released today. All of these reports together could indicate the economy is ready to pick up growth.
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It was no great surprise that housing starts rose for the second time in three months since mortgage rates in November reached levels not seen since the mid-1960s. Since mortgage rates are not expected to increase significantly, we remain confident that the housing industry will continue to be alive and active well into 2003.
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At this time last year, our forecast called for interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to exceed six percent by this time this year,
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That said, January housing starts were the highest in over 20 years, and that is based on higher rates than we are currently experiencing, ... All in all, the little run-up in rates that occurred this week will not be enough to cause a significant slowdown in current housing market activity.
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Current record breaking low mortgage rates are keeping demand for housing strong, even as the overall economy stumbles sluggishly into the first part of the new year.