Drew Peck
Drew Peck
assumption economic greenspan industry move problems related seeing shore situation
The assumption is that a lot of the problems that we're seeing in the semiconductor industry now are related to the economy, and any move by Greenspan to shore up the economic situation we're seeing is going to be very beneficial.
cents company earning expensive maybe stock upside
There's no more upside coming. So we're not going to see more than 65, maybe 70 cents out of this company for the whole year. This is a very expensive stock to be earning 65 or 70 cents.
although company face fare negative quarter remarks seen selling stocks suggest trend until
While the company has seen no negative trend in its bookings activity, the Nortel remarks suggest a downturn is inevitable, although probably not until the first quarter of 2001. Unfortunately, stocks selling at more than 100 times multiples don't fare well in the face of any negative trend.
pour seems
When it rains, it always seems to pour at AMD.
anywhere close
I don't think were anywhere close to the bottom.
academic gravitate highest investors names point reality
But that's probably too academic a point of view. The reality is that investors, especially short-term investors and day traders, all gravitate to the most beaten-up names because that's where they get the highest bounce.
benefits both concerns december disappear february focused issue january mostly next quarter start third year
But both of those benefits are going to disappear by December and then January and February are going to be very, very tough. I don't have an issue for Intel's third quarter, which is mostly over. My concerns are mostly focused on the first quarter of next year -- that's when things are going to start getting derailed.
business half midst next prices pricing reasonably stable
Meanwhile, that's been in the midst of reasonably stable pricing in the processor business and I think that the stable pricing is about to come to an end. By the end of this year, we're going to see sharply eroding prices as we get into the first half of next year.
component demand drop likely pc related saw sector sharp
We saw a sharp drop in demand for processors. If that sustains, then it's likely we'll see some disappointments in the PC sector and related component companies.
business cash company eggs flow pieces point remaining selling subsidize
Obviously, this company is having big problems. It's cash flow negative. They are now at the point where they are selling off pieces of their business to subsidize the remaining piece. All their eggs are in one basket.
believe commentary grim hang hat numbers rather themselves
The numbers themselves tell a pretty grim story, so if you're going to hang your hat on this, you have to believe the qualitative commentary rather than the quantitative information.
disaster good rally
It's not a disaster. But it's just not good enough to rally the stock.
bit business consumer industrial looks next nice outside pc rebound struggling
The PC business looks like it's going to be struggling for most of next year. If you look a little bit outside the PC world and look at some of the things that are going on in the consumer and industrial sectors, looks to me like there is going to be a nice rebound coming.
business comments hinge
A lot is going to hinge on how much credibility there is in the comments ... that the microprocessor business has stabilized.