Drew Peck
Drew Peck
accurately adoption calculate cannot customers digital exact experience few growth inevitable inventory market networking next noted optical result smooth steady subscriber tremendous
Optical networking is exploding, and the market will experience tremendous growth during the next decade. As we noted with Digital Subscriber Lines, few important technologies experience smooth and steady adoption cycles. Customers cannot accurately calculate the exact rate of adoption, and the inevitable result is inventory imbalances.
assumption economic greenspan industry move problems related seeing shore situation
The assumption is that a lot of the problems that we're seeing in the semiconductor industry now are related to the economy, and any move by Greenspan to shore up the economic situation we're seeing is going to be very beneficial.
although company face fare negative quarter remarks seen selling stocks suggest trend until
While the company has seen no negative trend in its bookings activity, the Nortel remarks suggest a downturn is inevitable, although probably not until the first quarter of 2001. Unfortunately, stocks selling at more than 100 times multiples don't fare well in the face of any negative trend.
bit collective half likely might nervous people pulled quarter relief second sigh viewed year
I think a lot of people were a bit nervous about this quarter and there might be a bit of a collective sigh of relief that they pulled it out and that should be viewed positively. The second half of the year is likely to be a whole lot better.
pour seems
When it rains, it always seems to pour at AMD.
bit business consumer industrial looks next nice outside pc rebound struggling
The PC business looks like it's going to be struggling for most of next year. If you look a little bit outside the PC world and look at some of the things that are going on in the consumer and industrial sectors, looks to me like there is going to be a nice rebound coming.
agreement believe emerge feeling guess issues question quite
I'm not only in agreement, I've been feeling for quite a while that these issues are going to emerge pretty soon. I guess the only question I have is, if everything that Kumar described is true, which frankly, I believe it is, then why does he still have a 'buy' on the stock?
disaster good rally
It's not a disaster. But it's just not good enough to rally the stock.
believe commentary grim hang hat numbers rather themselves
The numbers themselves tell a pretty grim story, so if you're going to hang your hat on this, you have to believe the qualitative commentary rather than the quantitative information.
basically flat gross guidance surprise upside
They had an upside surprise in gross margins, but their guidance for 2002 is basically flat from here.
business comments hinge
A lot is going to hinge on how much credibility there is in the comments ... that the microprocessor business has stabilized.
cents company earning expensive maybe stock upside
There's no more upside coming. So we're not going to see more than 65, maybe 70 cents out of this company for the whole year. This is a very expensive stock to be earning 65 or 70 cents.
business half midst next prices pricing reasonably stable
Meanwhile, that's been in the midst of reasonably stable pricing in the processor business and I think that the stable pricing is about to come to an end. By the end of this year, we're going to see sharply eroding prices as we get into the first half of next year.
business cash company eggs flow pieces point remaining selling subsidize
Obviously, this company is having big problems. It's cash flow negative. They are now at the point where they are selling off pieces of their business to subsidize the remaining piece. All their eggs are in one basket.