Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
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There's no real compelling reason for stocks to be up. But you've got little new news and there's an upward bias, so we're up today after a few days of selling.
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It's always been a high-multiple stock among the retailers based on the reality of terrific business performance. Wal-Mart has many times in the last 15 years been a lousy investment possibility because it's priced so high. Our thinking is they've got to always be right.
brief continue good last markets moving stock year
You'll see markets continue to do the Cha-Cha, moving higher, but paced by brief retrenchments. It's not going to be as good as last year, but I think 2004 will still be a good year for the stock markets.
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Today, there isn't any economic news, and the earnings news is having an impact on those stocks but not the broader market.
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The forecasts for the second-half of the year for the most part seem to support a recovery, but to some extent, that's already priced into the market, so you're not seeing that much stock reaction. There's not a lot of conviction and some people will take profits. But I think there will continue to be a moderately upwards bias for the remainder of the year.
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It was great that we had three or four days of a healthy bounce. But our take is that the market is being unduly punitive right now.
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I'm just amazed the market has been as strong as it has in the past few days.
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It's a mixed picture. There's no question that the news is a lot better, but it may be priced into the market.
case expect higher january jump lower massive people percent profit run wanting year
We expect the year to end 2 to 3 percent higher or lower than where it is now. The case for it going down is a massive run of profit taking. The case for it going up is people wanting to get a jump on the January rally.
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Earnings have been good, but what you're starting to see is a return to the attitude about earnings that we saw in the late 1990's, where you're seeing more talk about whisper numbers, higher expectations, and a more punitive reaction to numbers that disappoint.
events friday market pricing reaction reality terrible
You had a terrible day Friday with the market pricing in the reality of these events and you have a continuation of that reaction now. There are no surprises. It's pretty much across-the-board negativity.
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What companies report now is less influential than what they say about future quarters.
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We think one of the more exciting opportunities this year in the market are in the tech sector.
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These accounting worries go right to the underpinnings of trust and confidence. If trust isn't there, you're tugging at the loose thread of a cheap polyester suit. People are worried about what other shoes are getting ready to drop.