Donald Selkin
Donald Selkin
behind curve disconnect economy fed leading lower months people positive rates seems seen starting stock supposed talking
Normally, lower rates would be seen as a positive for stocks, but in this case, it seems like the Fed is behind the curve and the Fed is supposed to be leading us out of this. For months people have been talking about the disconnect between the economy and stock prices. Now it's starting to seem like that disconnect is narrowing.
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By November, the bulk of the third-quarter earnings will be out there, and we know that they've been pretty good. But for stocks to go higher, we're going to need another catalyst. Expectations for a strong fourth quarter could do it, positive comments on the holiday season could do it, but really, I think it's going to be the economic news.
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There are a lot of positives -- Intel said some good things; Greenspan is saying that oil prices are a wild card, which we knew already, but that inflation is under control. But we're mixed, bouncing around today (Wednesday). You've got big names coming out in the next day and you need some of these giants to say tech is improving.
drifting earnings encouraged few next oil positive prices seem
We're drifting, and we're probably going to keep drifting for the next few weeks. But that's OK, there are positive developments out there. Oil prices seem to be under control, and I'm more encouraged about the second-quarter earnings than I have been in a while.
bear few grin maybe next november optimistic run
I'm maybe more optimistic for the end of the year, but for the next few weeks, I think we are still in these treacherous waters. We're just going to have to grin and bear it, and then maybe we'll see a run up in November and December.
completed extent fed justifies rally reaction stunned
It's such a knee-jerk reaction. I don't think that what the Fed said justifies the kind of reaction we saw. I would like to think that we could rally back after the certification is completed tomorrow, but I don't know. I am just stunned by the extent of this decline. Hopefully, it was a one-time reaction.
bad earnings
Earnings have come in not as bad as the expectations.
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The big hurdles next week are the Fed meeting Tuesday and the jobs report Friday. The market reaction to those events may set the tone for the month and determine whether we'll see a November rally.
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There's tremendous relief after all the selling, and statistically, we have some verification that this could be a bottom. But that doesn't mean we're going to see another day like this. There's still tremendous negativity.
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I'm not so sure that the rally was commensurate with the news out of the Fed. They seemed to say that they're going to keep rates low for a long time, which wasn't a surprise, but maybe people felt better seeing it spelled out more clearly.
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I'm encouraged. You get a strong rally for a few days, a couple of days of selling so people can take some profits, then new buyers come in at the lower level. That's the classic definition of an uptrend.
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I guess after all this selling you could see an oversold bounce next week, and some up days here and there in early February. What's concerning is that there doesn't seem to be anything to lift us on a more consistent basis.
individual market stocks
Individual stocks can go up, but the market is too overbought internally and there is too much complacency for a rally.
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I'm happy that things are going up in the markets but when things get too bullish and too, I don't know if they're exuberant, but too optimistic, someone will find something between the lines on the Fed statement saying, 'but they said this, they cautioned here', maybe to have to be vigilant, so people might use that as an excuse to stay profits.