Derek Halpenny
Derek Halpenny
argue bit certainly convinced cut further interest market monetary possibly rate seen since stability
We could argue possibly that we've seen a little bit of stability since we've had the interest rate cut out of the way. Certainly the market is not as convinced over the need for further substantial monetary tightening in the UK.
changed knows market repeated shift timing
Fukui has said nothing new, he has pretty much repeated what the market already knows and hasn't changed the timing of a shift on quantitative easing.
ahead confident factor federal following looked market moves next outlook previous seems supportive view
Following previous moves by the Federal Reserve, the market pretty much immediately looked ahead and had a confident view on the interest-rate outlook for the next two meetings. That's been a supportive factor for the dollar. Now it seems to be different.
becoming data date market push
The data are becoming ever more important. There's no justification in the data to date to warrant the market to push aggressively for 5.25 percent.
beginning below bit concern fact gone market playing push time trying
I think the fact that every time we've gone below 114 yen (on dollar/yen) we've bounced back higher, is beginning to become a bit of a concern for those playing the short-term market by trying to push dollar-yen lower.
bank consensus definitely given japan low market past remains tested three war weeks
The consensus is that we are definitely going to war and it's probably two to three weeks away, no more than that. We can take it as a given that the Bank of Japan is in the market at or around 117, so that the low we have tested in the past at 116.80 remains intact.
conclusion fed figures impact katrina looking market move near net next term therefore weak
The market has already come to the conclusion that the medium-term impact of Katrina will be negligible if not net positive, therefore weak figures in the near term won't have any bearing. The market is now looking for a Fed move next week.
beginning beyond easing interest market potential rate shift step terms
The market is now beginning to look beyond the potential first step in terms of a shift from quantitative easing to interest rate targeting.
dollar loses rate towards turning
Towards the end of the year, we do see the dollar turning down as it loses its rate support.
appetite consensus creeping dollar employment given gradually higher limited original reading released report selling
Given that the employment report will be released on Friday, the appetite for selling the dollar may be limited especially with the consensus for non-farm payrolls gradually creeping higher from the original reading of 200,000.
bit maybe rates subject tackle
One subject he may tackle is that maybe short-term rates need to be that bit higher.
helping interest march rate rise shift towards week
There has been a shift this week towards expectations of another U.S. interest rate rise in March -- the interest rate differential is there and it is helping the dollar.
event foreign guaranteed investors japanese nearly pick purchases yield
Yield is still very important for Japanese investors and it's nearly a guaranteed event that we'll see a pick up in purchases of foreign assets.
buying interest obvious rate
There is no more obvious way to play interest rate differentials than buying dollar/yen.