Derek Halpenny
Derek Halpenny
becoming data date market push
The data are becoming ever more important. There's no justification in the data to date to warrant the market to push aggressively for 5.25 percent.
bank consensus definitely given japan low market past remains tested three war weeks
The consensus is that we are definitely going to war and it's probably two to three weeks away, no more than that. We can take it as a given that the Bank of Japan is in the market at or around 117, so that the low we have tested in the past at 116.80 remains intact.
against commitment interest likely obvious policy selling shift strong thursday trade zero
Any shift in policy on Thursday from the BOJ is very likely to be accompanied by a strong commitment to maintaining zero interest rates. There is no trade more obvious than selling the yen against the dollar.
broader continued decline picture trade
The broader picture for the yen's decline is down to the continued deterioration in Japan's trade surplus.
banking crisis few last realistic time view
A banking crisis is a more realistic view than at any time in the last few years.
consensus continue reading support
A consensus reading is not going to continue to support the dollar.
ahead confident factor federal following looked market moves next outlook previous seems supportive view
Following previous moves by the Federal Reserve, the market pretty much immediately looked ahead and had a confident view on the interest-rate outlook for the next two meetings. That's been a supportive factor for the dollar. Now it seems to be different.
short supported
The yen is being supported by a liquidation of short positions.
conclusion fed figures impact katrina looking market move near net next term therefore weak
The market has already come to the conclusion that the medium-term impact of Katrina will be negligible if not net positive, therefore weak figures in the near term won't have any bearing. The market is now looking for a Fed move next week.
beginning beyond easing interest market potential rate shift step terms
The market is now beginning to look beyond the potential first step in terms of a shift from quantitative easing to interest rate targeting.
against ahead both dollar employment euro key remains report
The dollar remains underpinned against both the euro and the yen ahead of the key employment report from the US.
dollar last mode recovery remains sharp
The dollar remains in recovery mode after last week's sharp sell-off.
against dollar euro fears increase modestly outlook sentiment
The dollar has depreciated sharply against the euro and more modestly against the yen with dollar sentiment deteriorating as fears increase over the outlook for the US economy.