David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, born in 1965, is a French art curator and author, specialized in modern and contemporary art...
ProfessionMusical.ly Star
Date of Birth19 April 1997
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Fed action is not a fait accompli -- weakness might have to extend through the second half to lead to a Fed cut.
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As the economy continues to slow and inflation remains benign we expect the Fed will be in easing mode by the second half.
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We have one of the weakest growth rates ever during a tightening cycle, and we have to ask the question why the Fed still believes it is accommodative at 3.75 percent,
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Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.
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I believe the Fed is in overshoot territory.
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For every pricing power story the Fed hawks and bond bears can find, we can probably match in the opposite direction.
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This would provide the Fed some flexibility regarding future meetings.
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We're not sure what to make of the fact that we find out from a reporter about comments that the Fed chairman made at a dinner two days earlier.
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Over the past three decades, the Fed tightened on eight occasions, five of these saw the yield curve invert,
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A year ago, 'deflation' was dripping off everybody's lips. Today, core inflation is off its low, but it's about the same as it was a year ago, yet all anybody can talk about is how far the Fed will hike.
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It is basically a subtle way to flash to the market that the negative economic consequences are resonating and that the Fed may not just look at this as a temporary soft patch this time.
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If the Fed is truly data dependent, then what matters most...is the data flow for the second quarter. What do we know about the second quarter? Well, not that much, but what we do know suggests a slowing to around a 2.5% annual rate.
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Has the roof collapsed? You get trends like this at the tail-end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle, and what follows next is either a soft or hard landing in the broad economy.
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There is a historical pattern that everyone should be aware of because each of the past three newly appointed Fed chairman began their tenure with a quick succession of interest rate hikes.