David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, born in 1965, is a French art curator and author, specialized in modern and contemporary art...
ProfessionMusical.ly Star
Date of Birth19 April 1997
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As for the employment report, I think there's a danger of overreacting over the message from it because this was the third warmest January in the past 112 years.
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The big surprise in 1994 was that, despite all the inflation scares -- and there was tremendous inflation worry -- core inflation actually fell in 1994.
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A year ago, 'deflation' was dripping off everybody's lips. Today, core inflation is off its low, but it's about the same as it was a year ago, yet all anybody can talk about is how far the Fed will hike.
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(T)hat's not a recession-maker, but it's a pinch nonetheless - it means a little less steak and a lot more bologna, fewer outings to the nightclub and perhaps one less vacation on the cruise line (but maybe more time at the blackjack table).
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That shows that companies are cutting in other areas to prevent their tech infrastructure from becoming obsolete.
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Corporate America is just a productivity machine. Non-farm businesses were able to boost their output at a 3.5 percent annual rate and cut payroll hours at an over 2 percent rate. So 40 percent of the productivity increase came from the backside of the workforce.
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Energy and raw material demand in China has been one of the key drivers behind the strength in commodities. If China is raising rates and trying to slow growth, then we may see some tempering in those pressures.
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It's obvious that asset inflation has emerged as a chief policy concern. It complicates the policy picture going forward.
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It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs. But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose.
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It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs, ... But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose.
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It's a very strange mix, ... It may signal some kind of slowing, but I think I'd have to see a lot more evidence of that. It doesn't appear that consumer consumption is slowing in any meaningful way.
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The whole view that this was going to be over quickly and it would be off to the races was just pie in the sky. My sense is that this could easily drag on for months. At what point does that hit people like a two-by-four?
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The SARS virus may not have much of a direct impact on U.S. growth -- though we would look for some spillover to the consumer confidence data.
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There is the pre-Katrina economy and the post-Katrina economy. Any number that's going to be important for stocks and bonds is not going to be in government reports. The most important data near-term are going to be energy futures. Those are going to be key indicators as far as interest rates are concerned.