David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, born in 1965, is a French art curator and author, specialized in modern and contemporary art...
ProfessionMusical.ly Star
Date of Birth19 April 1997
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Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.
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Has the roof collapsed? You get trends like this at the tail-end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle, and what follows next is either a soft or hard landing in the broad economy.
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has stopped bleeding ... a hiring spree in 2003 looks like a low-odds bet.
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Katrina's effects are being felt nationally-on the nation's transportation arteries, supply chains, chemical plants, airlines, leisure/hotels, gasoline prices everywhere and retailing. The commercial impact is widespread.
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I think it does complicate the rate hike picture and the near-term interest rate outlook.
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There is no question that these are trends that are going to add to people's anxiety and the process has already started.
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The only reason I'm calling for a rate hike is because that's what they told us they are going to do.
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When you think of all the fiscal and monetary stimulus we've had, we should have the economy growing at 5 or 6 percent. The fact that we're not is the story.
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Whether it's lingering layoffs, receding real wage growth or cutbacks in health/pension benefits, corporate America is now in the process of shifting its lack of pricing power onto the backs of its workforce,
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We estimate the near-term loss in terms of output, employment and income in the affected area coupled with the surge in energy costs that impacts everyone will offset any future rebuilding by a factor of two to one.
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We're not sure what to make of the fact that we find out from a reporter about comments that the Fed chairman made at a dinner two days earlier.
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With the exception of the backward-looking Q4 GDP report, the data released today surprised to the downside.
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We have one of the weakest growth rates ever during a tightening cycle, and we have to ask the question why the Fed still believes it is accommodative at 3.75 percent,
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This would provide the Fed some flexibility regarding future meetings.