David Gilmore
David Gilmore
David Gilmoreis an American session jazz guitarist...
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A rate hike will be no panacea for the euro,
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Japan increasingly needs a weaker yen to counter falling foreign demand and increased competitive pressures.
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Japanese individual investors continue to shun risk, and the notion of putting money into foreign assets is repugnant.
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Unless we get some more serious signs of demand slowing, the Fed is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting,
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Otherwise a spend-prone fiscal policy teamed with a pro-growth monetary policy could be problematic for the U.S. economy and currency ahead.
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Removing currency risk is key to getting Japanese investors to buy U.S. assets, which will help keep U.S. interest rates down.
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If the ECB has to intervene regularly to support the euro, it is sending the wrong message to the public, who will be carrying euro notes and coins in 2002,
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What makes some red in the face is that (Greenspan) can speak about Fed policy and the economy just days after leaving the Fed, when his insights are most relevant. Look at Eurodollar futures today if you have any doubt.
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Look for the imbalances theme to get loads of attention at the G-7 meeting. Doing nothing elevates the risk of a disorderly adjustment.
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Markets become disorderly due to aggregate psychology. That's difficult for anyone to assess at any time, but you look for red flags, like significant overreactions to data,
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If there is any significant slowing in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months, it will be good-bye surpluses and hello big fiscal stimuli and deficits, and welcome higher U.S. rates,
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It's rare to have a major current account dislocation in the United States, ... but it can happen.
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The message from Fed officials is clear: You don't take a record expansion and shut it off with two months of data. There is no risk of a hard landing.
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The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and the European Central Bank could tighten more.