David Gilmore
David Gilmore
David Gilmoreis an American session jazz guitarist...
bias conditions early fed inflation labor last market oil prices remain retain tight until
We think that as long as labor market conditions remain tight and oil prices high, the Fed will retain an inflation bias which could last until early spring.
economy fed funds moving neutral percent rate rule start stays thinking
We have to start thinking about the Fed moving from a neutral to a more restrictive policy. I wouldn't rule out a 6 percent Fed funds rate if the economy stays hot.
along dollar expansion expect fed foundation funds move treasury yields
While we have said all along that the foundation for the U.S. expansion is dodgy, as long as it is what it is, we expect to see the dollar and Treasury yields - and fed funds - move up.
believe cut fed follow quickly rate relatively
We believe the ECB will follow the Fed rate cut relatively quickly with one of its own,
countries federal hikes match rate struggling
Many of these countries are struggling to match rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,
consider delay election fed late might summer until
More tightening is still needed. The Fed has to consider the election calendar. They can't delay until late summer or fall, when it might be politically more difficult.
again demand expected fed next raise rates serious signs unless
Unless we get some more serious signs of demand slowing, the Fed is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting,
days economy economy-and-economics face fed leaving policy red speak today
What makes some red in the face is that (Greenspan) can speak about Fed policy and the economy just days after leaving the Fed, when his insights are most relevant. Look at Eurodollar futures today if you have any doubt.
expansion fed hard message months officials record risk shut
The message from Fed officials is clear: You don't take a record expansion and shut it off with two months of data. There is no risk of a hard landing.
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The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and the European Central Bank could tighten more.
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The dollar is getting batted back and forth from U.S. data indicating that Fed will raise rates to data that indicates the opposite. I don't think there's enough data on the table for anyone to predict what the Fed will do.
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With little evidence that tightness in the U.S. labor market is slackening, and oil prices a wild card for inflation as winter approaches, the FOMC had few options but to remain vigilant about inflation,
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Europe has double-digit unemployment and no inflation problem, ... Any European Central Bank tightening will be swamped by much more from the Fed.
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European companies are flush with cash and they want to own market share in the United States, ... They want to own the 'new economy.'