Daniel Katzive
Daniel Katzive
change definitive quarter second soon
We think it's really too soon to see a definitive change from the BOJ. It's more of a second quarter story.
canadian flows strength
We see strength in energy-related flows into the country, which underpins the Canadian dollar.
continued dollar fed markets price reason staying strong
The reason the dollar is staying strong is because markets have continued to price in more Fed tightening.
buy currency good short
Short term, it is good to buy the currency on dips.
amount currency downside fair fed remains surprises upside vulnerable
Moreover, with a fair amount of Fed tightening now priced in, the US currency remains more vulnerable to downside surprises than upside surprises.
data downside given market opposed rate remains sensitive sign surprises
I think this is a sign that the market remains disproportionately sensitive to downside surprises in U.S. data as opposed to the upside, given how much (Fed rate hikes) is already priced in.
action against assumed behavior break changed cover dollar dominate exclusion factors forced highs last level likely market near price week year
I think the break of the big level last week ... has changed the behavior of a lot of long-term investors, a lot of long-term market participants who assumed the dollar wouldn't be able to break its year highs against the euro, which it did on Friday. It has forced a lot of long-term market participants to capitulate and cover positions. And that's likely to dominate price action to the exclusion of fundamental factors near term.
average earnings fed growth headlines solid strength
Friday's solid US payrolls headlines and strength in average earnings growth have boosted Fed tightening expectations further.
activity against allowing easing euro evidence further housing market prompt retail rethink retreat risk solid stability
Further evidence of stability in the housing market and solid retail activity could prompt a rethink of MPC easing risk now priced in, allowing the euro to retreat sharply against the pound.
continues cycle dollar economies exposed fed key leave policy second structural suspect
We suspect that the end of the Fed tightening cycle as policy tightening continues in the key low-yield economies will leave the dollar increasingly exposed to structural vulnerabilities in the second quarter.
adds risk upside
It adds near-term upside risk for the dollar.
beyond fully hike marked prospects remains
While a hike in May remains fully priced, prospects for tightening beyond that have been marked down.
against below dollar michigan pull touch
Michigan was a touch below consensus. The dollar may pull back a little, especially against interest-rate-sensitive currencies.
backdrop carry cut data good momentum neutral positions provide rebuilding trades
The data suggests the big momentum positions which had mirrored carry trades have now been cut back to much more neutral levels, which should provide a good backdrop for carry trade rebuilding in the new year.