Daniel Katzive
Daniel Katzive
data downside given market opposed rate remains sensitive sign surprises
I think this is a sign that the market remains disproportionately sensitive to downside surprises in U.S. data as opposed to the upside, given how much (Fed rate hikes) is already priced in.
amount currency downside fair fed remains surprises upside vulnerable
Moreover, with a fair amount of Fed tightening now priced in, the US currency remains more vulnerable to downside surprises than upside surprises.
change definitive quarter second soon
We think it's really too soon to see a definitive change from the BOJ. It's more of a second quarter story.
adjustment dollar interest weakness week
There's more to the dollar weakness this week than just an adjustment in interest rates.
against below dollar michigan pull touch
Michigan was a touch below consensus. The dollar may pull back a little, especially against interest-rate-sensitive currencies.
beyond fully hike marked prospects remains
While a hike in May remains fully priced, prospects for tightening beyond that have been marked down.
continues cycle dollar economies exposed fed key leave policy second structural suspect
We suspect that the end of the Fed tightening cycle as policy tightening continues in the key low-yield economies will leave the dollar increasingly exposed to structural vulnerabilities in the second quarter.
average earnings fed growth headlines solid strength
Friday's solid US payrolls headlines and strength in average earnings growth have boosted Fed tightening expectations further.
activity against allowing easing euro evidence further housing market prompt retail rethink retreat risk solid stability
Further evidence of stability in the housing market and solid retail activity could prompt a rethink of MPC easing risk now priced in, allowing the euro to retreat sharply against the pound.
buy currency good short
Short term, it is good to buy the currency on dips.
continued dollar fed markets price reason staying strong
The reason the dollar is staying strong is because markets have continued to price in more Fed tightening.
canadian flows strength
We see strength in energy-related flows into the country, which underpins the Canadian dollar.
data dollar environment heading likely market prevent remain strong timing
Data has been strong enough heading into year-end to prevent market participants from making strong conclusions on the likely timing of the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, and in this environment the dollar is likely to remain well-supported for now.
aversion bit crude ease equity global helped markets moderate prices risk tone
The better tone in global equity markets as crude prices moderate a bit has helped ease risk aversion concerns, to the dollar's benefit.