Colen Garrow
Colen Garrow
demand global growing itself local modest number pulling sector slump strength though
It's a modest number but it could be better were it not for the rand. The sector is growing on strength of local demand and it does look as though global manufacturing is pulling itself out of a slump - but we are not out of the doldrums yet.
affordable costs cuts dependency earners housing income likely low middle personal tax welfare
Welfare and dependency grants, personal income tax relief, and cuts in those costs which would make housing more affordable for middle and low income earners are likely to buoy consumption expenditure, and manufacturing.
business estate mining relative sector service size
The relative size of the mining sector is dwarfed by the contribution of the finance, real estate and business service sector's 19,5%.
balance budget despite fiscal good odd south
Despite the odd shortcoming, this Budget is on balance good. It entrenches South Africa's good fiscal record.
alter case cement developing economy hike interest market move needs next numbers rates side stance
This is going to cement the case to hike interest rates. The numbers do nothing to alter the stance now developing in the market that the next move in interest rates will be up. The consumption side of the economy needs to be slowed.
allow attract committee concerned credit element growth inflation introduce last monetary month policy sufficient
The monetary policy committee cautioned last month that it may not allow growth in credit to go unchecked, inferring that it may be concerned that consumption expenditure could introduce an element of inflation sufficient to attract a monetary tightening response.
apart placing pressure rates yields
Apart from placing upward pressure on the yields in these markets, short-term rates may also respond, higher.
average bringing changed december forecast highly less previous
Interestingly, the forecast for December may be little changed from the previous month, around 3.7%, bringing the average for 2005 to less than 4.0%, a highly respectable figure.
amount currency exceed foreign funds government held limits offshore private situation taken thus vehicle via
In such instances, funds held offshore may potentially exceed the R750Ê000 ceiling, which limits the amount of funds which may be taken offshore via the vehicle of private foreign currency accounts. The situation as it is, is thus inequitable and will have to be addressed by government at some stage.
amount currency exceed foreign funds government held limits offshore private situation taken thus vehicle via
In such instances, funds held offshore may potentially exceed the R750Â 000 ceiling, which limits the amount of funds which may be taken offshore via the vehicle of private foreign currency accounts. The situation as it is, is thus inequitable and will have to be addressed by government at some stage.
disposable employed income money retail south spent
In short, more South Africans employed suggests more disposable income and more money being spent on retail goods.
above account balance considered currency current deficit exports flag generally mark restore weakness
The current account deficit is above the 3% benchmark, a high-water mark generally considered to flag pending currency weakness to restore a balance between exports and imports.
almost confidence consumer cuts cycle fiscal generally higher income interest lowest monetary personal rates record replaced since sound tax
This has, however, since been replaced by a cycle of higher trending growth, underpinned by record confidence; the lowest consumer interest rates since 1983; almost R89bn in personal income tax cuts since 1995; and generally sound macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal stability.
although global looks persistent pick recovery remains sector strength threatened
The manufacturing sector remains threatened by the persistent strength of the rand, although it should pick up from what looks to be a recovery in global manufacturing.