Colen Garrow
Colen Garrow
argued cause central debt further growing levels rate remains stimulus
While it remains manageable, it can be argued that it is the rate at which debt levels are growing that may cause no further stimulus from the central bank.
affordable costs cuts dependency earners housing income likely low middle personal tax welfare
Welfare and dependency grants, personal income tax relief, and cuts in those costs which would make housing more affordable for middle and low income earners are likely to buoy consumption expenditure, and manufacturing.
currency growth hold potential pressure reaching sector
Manufacturing will be under pressure because of currency strength. It will hold the sector back and (keep) growth from reaching its potential level.
battling crippled mining sector similar strong supply
Manufacturing is not the only supply sector battling a strong currency. Mining is being crippled by a similar problem.
consistent controls deviate environment exchange national path rand remains strong treasury unlikely
While an environment in which the rand remains strong is always appropriate for something more creative, the National Treasury is unlikely to deviate from its consistent path of removing exchange controls gradually.
apart placing pressure rates yields
Apart from placing upward pressure on the yields in these markets, short-term rates may also respond, higher.
demand global growing itself local modest number pulling sector slump strength though
It's a modest number but it could be better were it not for the rand. The sector is growing on strength of local demand and it does look as though global manufacturing is pulling itself out of a slump - but we are not out of the doldrums yet.
bank cut exchange likely moral support
What the bank is more likely to do (than cut rates) is intensify its moral suasion in support of a more competitive exchange rate.
code considered exchange good hardly interest issue likely matter moral observers rand rate
Another issue likely to resurface is the matter of 'a more competitive exchange rate', deciphered as code for the rand to weaken. Moral suasion such as this may be good for export-biased manufacturers, but will hardly be considered good for observers of inflation, or long-term interest rate markets.
aggressive ammunition drive fiscal growth household monetary necessary relief showing signs
Fiscal relief may be the ammunition necessary to drive consumption expenditure but with it not being accompanied by aggressive monetary relief, growth in household consumption expenditure is showing signs of consolidation.
business estate mining relative sector service size
The relative size of the mining sector is dwarfed by the contribution of the finance, real estate and business service sector's 19,5%.
alter case cement developing economy hike interest market move needs next numbers rates side stance
This is going to cement the case to hike interest rates. The numbers do nothing to alter the stance now developing in the market that the next move in interest rates will be up. The consumption side of the economy needs to be slowed.
annual budget growth likely line reaching target
It's likely to be a pro-growth budget in line with the government's target of reaching annual GDP growth of 6% by 2010.
government situation thus
The situation as it is, is thus inequitable and will have to be addressed by government at some stage.