Charles Lieberman
Charles Lieberman
curve economic economy given growth notion simplistic slow yield
There is this simplistic notion around that because the yield curve is inverted, therefore, economic growth is going to slow down, but ... no consideration is given as to why the economy would slow down.
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When a doctor administers medicine, he or she makes a judgment about the appropriate dosage in advance. The Fed has to make that judgment, but there's a chance they've already given out the right dosage and just need an appropriate amount of time for it to take effect.
appear armed companies fatter goods inevitable items obvious people prices produce spending
Inflation, on the surface, does not appear to be a concern, but it's obvious that prices for some items are rising, ... It's inevitable that when people are armed with fatter paychecks and when companies are spending more to produce goods and services, prices are going to rise.
absolutely believe change inflation near number reason soft time
Inflation has been very soft for a number of years, and there's absolutely no reason to believe that's going to change any time in the near future.
concerned consumers curtail falling fed hurt market miss small stock troubled
The Fed is not going to be troubled by a small miss (in the CPI). I don't think it's that big an issue, ... They're concerned that a falling stock market could hurt consumers sufficiently to curtail spending. That could be a problem.
bit consumer difficult financing fourth quarter spending surprising
It wouldn't be surprising if there was a little bit of a pullback in consumer spending in the first quarter as well because of the zero-percent financing in the fourth quarter, which makes for a very difficult comparison.
gains higher numbers offset wage
As long as the productivity numbers are very good, the higher wage gains can be offset by higher productivity gains,
activity awful december doubt elevated housing mild start surprised winter
No doubt housing activity was elevated over the winter because of very, very mild weather. One housing start in Syracuse, N.Y., in December is an awful lot. So we shouldn't be surprised by a big fall-off.
claims fact low
The fact that claims are low is very comforting.
costs inverse relation rise tend wage
As productivity slows, wage costs tend to rise -- one has an inverse relation to the other.
clearly convenient economy growing meet needs stock stop strong suit
This is a very strong report. The economy clearly is growing too strong and it's not going to stop on a dime, which is not very convenient to suit the Fed's needs and to meet the stock market's needs.
clearly convenient economy growing meet needs stock stop strong suit
This is a very strong report, ... The economy clearly is growing too strong and it's not going to stop on a dime, which is not very convenient to suit the Fed's needs and to meet the stock market's needs.
carrying good inventory less means process production
That's actually good news. It means we're carrying less inventory and the production process is adjusting.
consumer economic overall spending terms trend underlying
But I think the underlying trend in terms of consumer spending and overall economic spending is actually up.