Charles Lieberman
Charles Lieberman
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We continue to see very rapid economic growth which has been a problem for the Fed all along. We have not seen a material increase in labor costs and that's what I think is going to be the ultimate problem in the economy somewhere down the road, though clearly it's not imminent.
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Fundamentally, the economy has not slowed as investors had hoped or the Fed requires. It puts a tightening in August back on the table.
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Unemployment is sufficiently high, and the economy has just come out of a relatively mild recession, so inflation pressures are relatively soft right now. It will take a while of solid growth before we have upward pressure on inflation, so the Fed can be a little relaxed about it.
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Overwhelmingly, I think the stock market is taking the view that the economy is doing well despite the rise in interest rates, and they clearly don't think that however much interest rates go up, that it is going to impair growth, or impair profitability.
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There is this simplistic notion around that because the yield curve is inverted, therefore, economic growth is going to slow down, but ... no consideration is given as to why the economy would slow down.
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This is a very strong report. The economy clearly is growing too strong and it's not going to stop on a dime, which is not very convenient to suit the Fed's needs and to meet the stock market's needs.
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This is a very strong report, ... The economy clearly is growing too strong and it's not going to stop on a dime, which is not very convenient to suit the Fed's needs and to meet the stock market's needs.
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I think there's been a slowdown in economic activity, but I don't think it's been an adequate slowdown and I suspect it might be temporary. There isn't a lot of evidence yet to indicate that the economy is slowing notably.
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The economy is doing a lot better than people recognize and therefore, the Fed may have to hike rates more than they expect. The equity market is fighting the Fed.
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The economy is still growing above trend as evident by erosion of the unemployment rate and the low level of unemployment claims.
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It wouldn't be surprising if there was a little bit of a pullback in consumer spending in the first quarter as well because of the zero-percent financing in the fourth quarter, which makes for a very difficult comparison.
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That's the time when a big number is most likely, mainly when we're coming out of a recession. At this stage of the business cycle, to be getting a 5 percent growth rate in productivity for a year is really very impressive.
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I think part of what has driven the market today are fluctuations in oil and interest rates and the bond market.
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No doubt housing activity was elevated over the winter because of very, very mild weather. One housing start in Syracuse, N.Y., in December is an awful lot. So we shouldn't be surprised by a big fall-off.