Cary Leahey
Cary Leahey
core fact liked market number pipeline pressure rate underneath
The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent,
dominate earlier forecast hard numbers percent quarter strong terms week
The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week at least in terms of forecasting GDP. It's hard not to have a GDP forecast now that's not around 5 percent or higher.
combined election fed harder job pull trigger
That, combined with no job growth, makes it harder and harder for the Fed to pull the trigger in an election year.
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We're not talking about large sums of money. It is ironically only worth a couple of dollars to the Social Security check of the average American. They may be able to knock back a cold beer in a cheap bar.
central european fed feels half instead lean point shore toward unlike wants
I lean toward a half point instead of a quarter. The Fed wants to shore up confidence, to show that, unlike the European Central Bank, it feels your pain.
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The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year.
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The bond market doesn't really care about the payrolls data now because you're even getting the crazy question asked about whether the Fed can ease.
fed looks might rates remember september skip today worse
The Fed might skip (raising rates in) September -- but you have to remember that how the world looks today and how it looks on September 20 could be a lot different -- a lot worse or a lot better.
certainly early impressive lowest since
It's certainly an impressive number, it's the lowest since early 2001.
consumer goods passed though wage
Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices, and it hasn't passed through into wage gains,
almost core decline deflation equally favorable fed inflation interest last might next notion raise rate rates reminds residual risks supports surprise week
You got a favorable surprise on the CPI. We had the first decline in the core rate in 21 years, ... It just reminds the Fed, which said last week that the risks of inflation and deflation were almost equally balanced, that you still have some very residual deflation risk. And it ... supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year.
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This is one of the days when nobody is really going to care because the employment report was definitely weak.
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It's an impressive number. It just gives you more confidence that you'll get 4.0 percent plus (increases) in the fourth quarter and you'll hang in there through the first.
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A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now.