Cary Leahey
Cary Leahey
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The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year.
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The bond market doesn't really care about the payrolls data now because you're even getting the crazy question asked about whether the Fed can ease.
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This is one of the days when nobody is really going to care because the employment report was definitely weak.
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A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now.
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One cannot deny that Katrina ironically may have had a positive effect on this index because of the big surge in orders.
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I don't see anything in the speech that is relevant to the near-term outlook.
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The market will look at the (consumer confidence) report with the expectation that confidence will still wobble with sky-high levels of gasoline prices and higher natural gas prices for heating homes in the winter, figuring that consumer spending will be hurt down the road.
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The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week at least in terms of forecasting GDP. It's hard not to have a GDP forecast now that's not around 5 percent or higher.
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The increase in orders is particularly welcome. The bond market may like the fact that the prices paid component dropped 11 points, reversing most of the big gain in November. Analysts are banking on strength in manufacturing next year to offset some of the expected weakness in housing related consumer demand.
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The important thing is not whether the Fed can ease but the fact that people can even ask that question and some intelligent people say if the Fed raises rates in September, it would be a public relations disaster.