Bryan Piskorowski
Bryan Piskorowski
economy few figure months
It's going to take us a few months to figure out how much the economy is slowing.
couple next tough
It's going to be tough in the next couple of weeks.
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It was really a story of positive earnings on the tape and no major hiccups on the economic front. You had decent reports from three sectors in general: industrial, tech and health care.
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That kind of capitulatory downside will lead to bounces, but the question is sustainability and follow-through. That's something the market has been unable to demonstrate any credibility in doing so over the last three months.
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The big picture here is that we're pretty quiet. We are in the seasonally strongest month of the year, so that supports us, but the fact that everyone's so bullish is a bit worrisome.
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A couple of days of profit taking is healthy and I wouldn't be reading too much into it. The discounting nature of the market being what it is, we just got a little ahead of ourselves.
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It's basically a technical dead-cat bounce we're seeing here today. The thing in the market that has been lacking is sustainability and follow through. So we'll keep our eyes on some upcoming economic data. And that's basically going to take today and this week's trade.
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It's been a disastrous week and we're just limping along here -- ultimately we're in a profit recession and the question is how long will that linger, which is frustrating the plight of equities. In the bigger picture you have a market that is clearly unhappy, and that stems from the lack of visibility.
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Also, global concerns have pushed money to the sidelines and it has remained there. As you move into 2003, the question becomes: Can the consumer hold on until we have corporate America pick up the torch and begin spending.
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This morning it was really a story of positive earnings on the tape and no major hiccups on the economic front. All in all, it's going to play out as a respectable but not blow-out earnings season.
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The Nasdaq is just licking its wounds and trying to rebuild. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines and there's some mild buying here.
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Tech stocks brought us up from our Oct. 8 lows and have continued to lead the market higher. When they go down it's going to drag the rest of the market with it.
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For the Fed, the productivity numbers and the very well-restrained unit labor costs are good news, confirming that they didn't have to take action to pace the economy.
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All of this building up with very little fundamentally to support it makes us vulnerable. It probably means there's going to be some news in the next few sessions that will cause some profit taking to come into play.