Bill Sullivan
Bill Sullivan
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It's almost a boilerplate meeting. At the last meeting there was widespread expectation that they would remove their pledge to maintain accommodative policy for 'a considerable period.' But the December employment figures made it very apparent that the job market continues to lag, and most observers have come to the conclusion that the Fed really does need to stay accommodative.
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It's very clear that September was a month of continued vigor for the economy. But consumption wasn't as vibrant as in July and August.
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A lot of businesses are going to slow. There's going to be lost sales, lost revenues, lost activity.
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You don't get huge swings like this if you don't have huge amounts of capital being put to work,
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Questions would arise over why the Fed needed to drop interest rates at this time. It would have raised fears that there was a train wreck coming in the financial system.
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There's no doubt that there's going to be a snapback. The real issue is whether the snapback is representative of substantial and permanent change.
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Activity is very light ahead of Greenspan's testimony tomorrow. We really shouldn't see much movement . . . there is no prominent economic data out today.
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Activity is very light ahead of Greenspan's testimony tomorrow, ... We really shouldn't see much movement . . . there is no prominent economic data out today.
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For the first game of the year I thought our guys played well. They came out strong and really took it to them in the first half.
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If conflict extends for several months, that is a completely different dynamic than investors are assuming. One could not rule out global equity markets hitting new lows.
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The lesson of the last half decade is the need to manage risk. In my judgment, the investing public is a lot more amenable to owning fixed-income securities now than at any time in the last 15 or 20 years.
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The markets pretty well anticipated the context of President Bush's proposals. The euphoria is over and now the cold reality of Washington politics will dominate.
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The market is trading very defensively. That is putting downward pressure on bond prices.
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All of a sudden the supply challenge will be taking a quantum leap.