Bill Sullivan
Bill Sullivan
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Everything has combined to push prices to new heights and if and when stock markets capitulate, you will have a tremendous bid for Treasuries.
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Even though the rising pattern in borrowing costs is a form of restraint, it is being offset by a surge in equity wealth as the stock market records consistent gains.
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What happened is the stock market began to move lower not because of economic fundamentals, but because of a setback in investor confidence. This huge evisceration of wealth is being seen as a leading indicator of the economy. Against that backdrop, CEO perceptions of the economy's potential have worsened.
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The stock market was euphoric over the data reported -- taking it as a sign the Fed will not raise rates over the balance of the calendar year. Inflation remains tame and the economy continues to grow.
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It's almost a boilerplate meeting. At the last meeting there was widespread expectation that they would remove their pledge to maintain accommodative policy for 'a considerable period.' But the December employment figures made it very apparent that the job market continues to lag, and most observers have come to the conclusion that the Fed really does need to stay accommodative.
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We have been on a high-growth path in India since we began our R&D services and financial services operations there in 2001. With the test and measurement market in India growing at an accelerated rate, we are expecting to triple the revenues from India in the next two to three years.
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If the equity market continues to retrench, then there's going to be quality flows coming into the Treasury arena that push bond yields lower,
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Japanese produced goods will become less competitive on the global market place as the yen appreciates and that's going to slow the recovery process, not only in Japan, but Asia as a whole.
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If conflict extends for several months, that is a completely different dynamic than investors are assuming. One could not rule out global equity markets hitting new lows.
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The markets pretty well anticipated the context of President Bush's proposals. The euphoria is over and now the cold reality of Washington politics will dominate.
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The market is trading very defensively. That is putting downward pressure on bond prices.
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In many respects, the Fed is a bit player when it comes to the overall outlook. We're dealing with issues of confidence.
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These (the Nasdaq and oil) are the key factors driving prices higher in a very thin environment.
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This is a very fragile recovery process. It's been reliant on these low borrowing costs. If we remove them, we effectively deny the economy its support.