Bernadette Murphy
Bernadette Murphy
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Corporate profits are what drive the stock market. On the economic front, we have been seeing a slowdown in some industries like housing. And so that could be a positive but may be, may not be, enough for the Fed. But corporate profits are always what drive a market and why investors buy the stocks of companies.
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The momentum has been reversed from the upside to the downside, and so they are capitalized on that by shorting stocks that had been popular -- the aggressive growth stocks
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Over the past 50 years, the average gain in the stock market has been roughly 16 percent a year. That, considering where we closed at the end of 1995, would put us just under 6,000. Those are big numbers, but on a percentage basis they're within the scope of a bull market.
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We've been focusing so much on tech. And we're starting to see that although these groups have periods of growth, they are basically cyclical... But until investors realize that, these things (Oracle's warning) are going to have a big impact on trade, ... that the banking stocks will come under pressure too.
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The fact that we were only down 20 points after the inordinate gain yesterday was pretty impressive.
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We've had tremendous moves -- and after you have explosive moves, it's not unusual for markets to pull back on profit taking.
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We went through this whole process in late May and we had a 7 percent correction. We regained almost the whole amount that we lost, and now with these numbers, investors are right back in the same mind set that they were at the end of May.
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I've been anticipating a 7 to 10 percent correction over the next few months.
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The semiconductors: Applied Materials is sort of like a kingpin for that whole industry -- and their earnings. It's going to be very interesting to watch the reaction. Semiconductors actually reached their highs in March. They sold off, and set lower highs in June-July. It's critical that they get through those June-July highs. And so we're going to have to watch them to make sure. They're right now at the lower part of their trading ranges. It's important to watch what happens now,
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This is what a lot of us who have always looked at the VIX have a reservation about -- it's not the late 1990s any more.
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Eventually, the pieces will come together, there will be a decisive trend, and the market will advance,
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Investors tend to move ahead of what the Fed actually does. And so like in the bond market in 1994, it was already rallying in November of '94 ... (when) the last move didn't come until after the turn of the year. So investors do tend to anticipate and move ahead of the action.
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In the industrial machinery area I've noticed Ingersoll-Rand has really created a wonderful base and demand is breaking it out,
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While some of the retailers have been under a lot of pressure, Kohl has really held its own, because it is a growth retailer.