Bernadette Murphy
Bernadette Murphy
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Corporate profits are what drive the stock market. On the economic front, we have been seeing a slowdown in some industries like housing. And so that could be a positive but may be, may not be, enough for the Fed. But corporate profits are always what drive a market and why investors buy the stocks of companies.
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We finally have more advancers than declines, yesterday and today, which is very important. It shows us that the market move is broadening out and we're hitting very nice price levels,
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I would like to say that I see the market broadening, ... But I really don't. People have been talking about the Russell 2000, because that has been performing so well. It's 2000 of the smallest stocks. Now, the problem is though that most of the gains have been in the health care area, which are the biotech stocks. And that's up over 50 percent since the end of the year. And the other area is the technology area, which has been up substantially. And that's what's been lifting that particular index.
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We've had tremendous moves -- and after you have explosive moves, it's not unusual for markets to pull back on profit taking.
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Eventually, the pieces will come together, there will be a decisive trend, and the market will advance,
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We are concerned about the gain and loss of confidence, but there are different areas of the market that are depressed.
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Over the past 50 years, the average gain in the stock market has been roughly 16 percent a year. That, considering where we closed at the end of 1995, would put us just under 6,000. Those are big numbers, but on a percentage basis they're within the scope of a bull market.
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I think economic numbers are always important to the market. We're at a modest level of support here and I think that most people really want to see the market hold together until year end. But, it's really been weakening.
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Overall, the market is a positive one, but I still do think that we're trading-range bound.
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Investors tend to move ahead of what the Fed actually does. And so like in the bond market in 1994, it was already rallying in November of '94 ... (when) the last move didn't come until after the turn of the year. So investors do tend to anticipate and move ahead of the action.
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The semiconductors: Applied Materials is sort of like a kingpin for that whole industry -- and their earnings. It's going to be very interesting to watch the reaction. Semiconductors actually reached their highs in March. They sold off, and set lower highs in June-July. It's critical that they get through those June-July highs. And so we're going to have to watch them to make sure. They're right now at the lower part of their trading ranges. It's important to watch what happens now,
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We went through this whole process in late May and we had a 7 percent correction. We regained almost the whole amount that we lost, and now with these numbers, investors are right back in the same mind set that they were at the end of May.
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I've been anticipating a 7 to 10 percent correction over the next few months.
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That's based on the fact that we seem to have set a volume peak in January and a breadth peak in February,