Bernadette Murphy
Bernadette Murphy
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The semiconductors: Applied Materials is sort of like a kingpin for that whole industry -- and their earnings. It's going to be very interesting to watch the reaction. Semiconductors actually reached their highs in March. They sold off, and set lower highs in June-July. It's critical that they get through those June-July highs. And so we're going to have to watch them to make sure. They're right now at the lower part of their trading ranges. It's important to watch what happens now,
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I don't think we're going to pullback right now, but I think we could pullback because we have been in this advancing phase. Our summer rally, it's been sort of a hard one to find. But we've been having a summer rally. So we could at some point, when we start running into resistance levels in the S&P and the Dow, have some sort of a pullback. But it will be a short term one.
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I think EDS and CSC are sort of a safe way of playing the tech area, because they're service companies and there is demand for their services.
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We went through this whole process in late May and we had a 7 percent correction. We regained almost the whole amount that we lost, and now with these numbers, investors are right back in the same mind set that they were at the end of May.
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I've been anticipating a 7 to 10 percent correction over the next few months.
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Corporate profits are what drive the stock market. On the economic front, we have been seeing a slowdown in some industries like housing. And so that could be a positive but may be, may not be, enough for the Fed. But corporate profits are always what drive a market and why investors buy the stocks of companies.
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We finally have more advancers than declines, yesterday and today, which is very important. It shows us that the market move is broadening out and we're hitting very nice price levels,
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That's based on the fact that we seem to have set a volume peak in January and a breadth peak in February,
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I would like to say that I see the market broadening, ... But I really don't. People have been talking about the Russell 2000, because that has been performing so well. It's 2000 of the smallest stocks. Now, the problem is though that most of the gains have been in the health care area, which are the biotech stocks. And that's up over 50 percent since the end of the year. And the other area is the technology area, which has been up substantially. And that's what's been lifting that particular index.
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I think Greenspan is just trying to let a little air out of the balloon. He is trying to say that even in a perfect economy and in this wonderful world of Wall Street there are pitfalls.
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We've been focusing so much on tech. And we're starting to see that although these groups have periods of growth, they are basically cyclical... But until investors realize that, these things (Oracle's warning) are going to have a big impact on trade, ... that the banking stocks will come under pressure too.
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We've had tremendous moves -- and after you have explosive moves, it's not unusual for markets to pull back on profit taking.
growth held retailers
While some of the retailers have been under a lot of pressure, Kohl has really held its own, because it is a growth retailer.
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Eventually, the pieces will come together, there will be a decisive trend, and the market will advance,