Bernadette Murphy
Bernadette Murphy
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I would like to say that I see the market broadening, ... But I really don't. People have been talking about the Russell 2000, because that has been performing so well. It's 2000 of the smallest stocks. Now, the problem is though that most of the gains have been in the health care area, which are the biotech stocks. And that's up over 50 percent since the end of the year. And the other area is the technology area, which has been up substantially. And that's what's been lifting that particular index.
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The fact that we were only down 20 points after the inordinate gain yesterday was pretty impressive.
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We've had tremendous moves -- and after you have explosive moves, it's not unusual for markets to pull back on profit taking.
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We went through this whole process in late May and we had a 7 percent correction. We regained almost the whole amount that we lost, and now with these numbers, investors are right back in the same mind set that they were at the end of May.
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Corporate profits are what drive the stock market. On the economic front, we have been seeing a slowdown in some industries like housing. And so that could be a positive but may be, may not be, enough for the Fed. But corporate profits are always what drive a market and why investors buy the stocks of companies.
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The momentum has been reversed from the upside to the downside, and so they are capitalized on that by shorting stocks that had been popular -- the aggressive growth stocks
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I've been anticipating a 7 to 10 percent correction over the next few months.
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The semiconductors: Applied Materials is sort of like a kingpin for that whole industry -- and their earnings. It's going to be very interesting to watch the reaction. Semiconductors actually reached their highs in March. They sold off, and set lower highs in June-July. It's critical that they get through those June-July highs. And so we're going to have to watch them to make sure. They're right now at the lower part of their trading ranges. It's important to watch what happens now,
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This is what a lot of us who have always looked at the VIX have a reservation about -- it's not the late 1990s any more.
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Eventually, the pieces will come together, there will be a decisive trend, and the market will advance,
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Investors tend to move ahead of what the Fed actually does. And so like in the bond market in 1994, it was already rallying in November of '94 ... (when) the last move didn't come until after the turn of the year. So investors do tend to anticipate and move ahead of the action.
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In the industrial machinery area I've noticed Ingersoll-Rand has really created a wonderful base and demand is breaking it out,
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While some of the retailers have been under a lot of pressure, Kohl has really held its own, because it is a growth retailer.
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We are concerned about the gain and loss of confidence, but there are different areas of the market that are depressed.