Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
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There is a lot of economic news to digest between now and the next meeting. If we see economic signs that are positive, then that would encourage the Fed to stay on the course of gradual rate hikes, but if things slow down then maybe they would skip a meeting or two.
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It was a matter of time before the core rate started feeling the effects of increased energy and commodity prices. Maybe it's aberrational but maybe it's the start of something more significant.
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Stock valuations have been stretched, everyone knows a rate hike is coming and great earnings are already baked into the stock market, so you're seeing this churning, and unfortunately, I would expect it to continue for the next few weeks.
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The Fed doesn't have to jack up rates really quickly since other economic indicators are softening. Capital expenditures are modest and employment figures are anemic, so the biggest danger the Fed faces is smothering the recovery.
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Need I detail how silly this is? Home prices are up dramatically, and recently we see that mortgage rates have ticked up significantly.
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We very much benefited this year from the still-low interest rates, with the Home Depot's and Lowe's of the world doing well, ... The whole universe of homebuilders and mortgagers did really well, too, but as interest rates continue to rise next year, that's going to dry up some.
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When you see a 250-point spurt like that in less than two months, that's not sustainable. What this pullback is doing, and I think will continue to do, is bring us back to a more sustainable level.
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When you stop and think about it, if the Fed were to pause, what does it actually do for anybody ... in the afflicted Gulf region? At this point they're more concerned with basic food and shelter and not really comparison-shopping for mortgages.
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We've got a nice snapback today. We got shellacked over the last few days, so it's not surprising to see a little bounce back.
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We've seen expectations cut and cut and cut. When you lower the bar enough, eventually it becomes easy enough to hurdle over.
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Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.
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Markets tend to temporarily wobble, and then return to their prior behavior. So don't panic or make any decisions based on your knee-jerk emotions.
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Markets don't make a top and then slide, topping is a process. Typically markets make an initial top, back off, try to surpass it, and can't do it.
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When Greenspan spoke the market rallied, and when he stopped it gave the gains back.