Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
biggest capital danger economic employment faces fed figures jack modest quickly rates since
The Fed doesn't have to jack up rates really quickly since other economic indicators are softening. Capital expenditures are modest and employment figures are anemic, so the biggest danger the Fed faces is smothering the recovery.
apparent capital guessing market nearly people pick stock tops whenever
Whenever you try to pick market tops and bottoms, you are making a prediction. Guessing what stock is going to outperform the market is forecasting, as is selling a stock for no apparent reason. Indeed, nearly all capital decisions made by most people are unconscious predictions.
anyway capital early less moved pulled purchases spent tech year
We may see some of the capital expenditures spent this year were more or less pulled through from early 2005. All these tech purchases would have been done anyway but they've just been moved forward.
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This is one reason why recent labor numbers were lackluster, ... Accelerated deprecation put a thumb on the side of the scale in favor of increased capital expenditures instead of hiring.
bring continue less
When you see a 250-point spurt like that in less than two months, that's not sustainable. What this pullback is doing, and I think will continue to do, is bring us back to a more sustainable level.
afflicted anybody basic concerned fed food gulf point shelter stop
When you stop and think about it, if the Fed were to pause, what does it actually do for anybody ... in the afflicted Gulf region? At this point they're more concerned with basic food and shelter and not really comparison-shopping for mortgages.
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We've got a nice snapback today. We got shellacked over the last few days, so it's not surprising to see a little bounce back.
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We've seen expectations cut and cut and cut. When you lower the bar enough, eventually it becomes easy enough to hurdle over.
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There is a lot of economic news to digest between now and the next meeting. If we see economic signs that are positive, then that would encourage the Fed to stay on the course of gradual rate hikes, but if things slow down then maybe they would skip a meeting or two.
certainly concept expected fed few fork given higher inflation move next opportunity regardless release shock shows supply whether
Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.
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Markets tend to temporarily wobble, and then return to their prior behavior. So don't panic or make any decisions based on your knee-jerk emotions.
initial markets surpass top
Markets don't make a top and then slide, topping is a process. Typically markets make an initial top, back off, try to surpass it, and can't do it.
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When Greenspan spoke the market rallied, and when he stopped it gave the gains back.
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The only dark cloud to this number is that now the Fed has no reason whatsoever to stop raising rates.