Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital
Barclays Investment Bankis the investment banking division of the British multinational Barclays bank headquartered in London. It provides advisory, financing and risk management services to large companies, institutions and government clients. It is a primary dealer in U.S. Treasury securities and various European Government bonds...
cautionary clear conflict high length major microscope move side
Under the microscope it is clear that an important watershed is approaching. The short-term downtrend is about to come into conflict with the medium-term uptrend. Typically we would side with the longer-term move but the length of the downtrend from the high is a major cautionary note.
clear current despite extremely forming high large levels market output sign surplus
What is clear is that despite OPEC's extremely high current output levels there is little sign of a large surplus forming in the market just yet.
dispute higher leaves open prices risk short solution
The possibility for a non-benign solution to the dispute leaves open the risk for higher prices in the short term.
above balance cannot commodity dominating further gains gold high inventory market momentum oil prices ruled strong terms
While we think such high prices are not justifiable by gold 's commodity fundamentals in terms of market balance and inventory levels, the combination of a surge in oil prices above $70/barrel, geopolitical tensions and strong momentum is dominating at present, and further gains cannot be ruled out.
although comfort crude current demand falling given growing high inventory levels oil product stocks unusually
The current high levels of U.S. inventory is of little comfort given that it is the product of an unusually high level of seasonal maintenance. Although crude stocks are rising, product stocks are falling and U.S. oil demand is growing strongly.
aggressive conflict discourage eventual help resolution selling
Uncertainty over the eventual resolution of this conflict would help discourage aggressive selling interest.
above driven mostly move recent
The recent move above $1,000 is mostly driven by speculative buying.
concerns expect inflation investor light near oil positive rally recent rising sentiment supported supportive
Much of gold's recent rally has been supported by positive investor sentiment in light of rising oil prices, inflation concerns and geopolitical volatility, and we do not expect these supportive macro-factors to dissipate in the near term.
buying help levels physical price provide unclear
Physical buying could help provide some support, but it is still unclear at which price levels they would re-emerge in significant quantities.
damage energy gas hurricane natural recent
Recent hurricane damage in the U.S. has impacted natural gas more than any other energy market.
beyond crisis energy hurricane impact katrina major markets produce pushed talk
It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.
conditions general market nervous next price remain
Market conditions will remain nervous and there is a general sense of uncertainty over the next big price move.
case delta exports falling nigerian oil potential production thanks threat
OPEC production is falling in any case thanks to Nigerian losses, and the threat from Niger Delta militants to oil exports has the potential to get even more serious.
appear deeply next problems rooted solving start unlikely whatever
Italy's problems appear so deeply rooted that the next government, whatever its complexion, is unlikely to do little more than make a start at solving them.