Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.
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There's an unbelievable number of reports coming out, any number of which could move us one way or the other, ... If we have a blowup in the jobless claims, and it goes above 400,000, if the consumer sentiment number doesn't confirm today's consumer confidence number, you could see some selling.
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This is definitely good news, ... Six out of the previous eight PPI reports have been higher than expected but the corresponding CPI reports have not. That means that we're not seeing the creeping effects of inflation passed on to the consumer.
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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I think the fact that we had this awful bombing ... and yet the market seems to be moving on, that it's starting to become sort of priced into the marketplace. We may get investors to get back in off the sidelines at some juncture as we start to get earnings reports for the quarter.
backing bit companies earnings energy handle high positive price season
We've been able to handle a lackluster earnings season so far. Energy companies haven't really come into the fray yet, so things may look a little better after they report. Another positive is that we're backing off a bit from the high price of oil.
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We bought on the rumor and are selling on the news, ... We've priced in the victory here. There's very low participation -- there's just no money in the game. Folks are starting to shift focus now.
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We're getting an oversold bounce. Telecoms are getting a boost because of the AT&T Wireless (news), ... Investors are going to buy those tech stocks that we're not necessarily worried about.
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We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
deal obviously
When you see a deal of this size, obviously (Washington Mutual) is still acquirable,
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We're in that dreadful point in investor psyche where bad news is bad news and good news is bad news,
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We spent the week worrying about yields and what the economic data would do. We managed to work our way through it. We finished off the week the best we could. Next week we have a host of economic data that may or may not change our mind. We'll see how it plays out.
corporate hear hopefully negative positive terms
We're still in the pre-reporting season, so, we'll hear more warnings from corporate America, hopefully more positive than negative in terms of guidance.
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We're starting to see that companies are starting to admit that the second half is going to be slow, so that's a lingering fear,