Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.
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We've got a lot of economic news between now and the next Fed meeting in May. The path of least resistance is higher, but there's a bumpy road.
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Next week we really kick that (warnings) season off. There's going to be more Gateways out there, and that's not going to help. People will make the argument that a lot of that bad news has been priced into the market already, but it certainly wasn't yesterday.
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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We spent the week worrying about yields and what the economic data would do. We managed to work our way through it. We finished off the week the best we could. Next week we have a host of economic data that may or may not change our mind. We'll see how it plays out.
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Today was one of the days where everything was negative. The market did hold in there pretty well, though. We're finishing up the week showing how much volatility we should expect over the next few weeks. We should be pleased we ended up where we did because it could've been a lot worse.
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There's a lot of improvement priced into the earnings, and provided we see confirmation of that, we should be able to keep gaining over the next few sessions, ... But if another major household name -- like GE last week -- were to disappoint, you could see some selling.
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Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle seem to have really nailed it. They have great popularity. They've hit a great line, both moving in the right direction. We see great upside for the next year in both of those names,
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Depending on what day it is we focus on earnings, we focus on the Fed. We have to get the Fed behind us before we really pick a direction. I think that direction will be higher, but not until next Wednesday.
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I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside.
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I think the semiconductors and the Nasdaq had sold off a little more than the rest of the market recently, so you're seeing them gain, ... But basically we're all waiting for everything that happens next week.
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If the high levels of employment aren't kept up with the high levels of productivity gains that we have been making, (the Fed) will probably need to do something pro-active and that would probably mean 25 basis points now and then something in the first quarter of next year.
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There are sleepy volumes and low participation. There are no players around. Next week, unfortunately, is going to be the same.
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Some major companies that drive this economy have been talking about a better fourth quarter and better first half of next year, ... It's not just predicated on easier interest rates.