Andrew To
Andrew To
Andrew Tois a member of the Wong Tai Sin District Council, Hong Kong. Of Hakka ancestry, he is the former chairman of League of Social Democrats from 2010 to 2011, succeeding Wong Yuk-man. His wife, Jackie Hung, was a leader of Civil Human Rights Front and Justice and Peace Commission of the Hong Kong Catholic Diocese...
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I think there was some minor selling pressure on telecom stocks as the market continued to see a weaker European telecom sector due to the high cost of Germany's third-generation mobile-phone licenses.
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People talk about stocks being relatively high in terms of the five-year averages, but it's not as rosy as those numbers suggest because the size of the economy, and therefore demand, has grown. There's still a perceived tightness in the market.
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Commodity stocks are driven by manufacturing growth, which represents demand. Those stocks are reacting to commodities markets around the world.
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You'll see some strong buying, as people realize they have sold stocks with (very high growth rates).
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Window dressing is out; they are furnishing the entire house. Everyone wants to own the best performing stocks over the last quarter.
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From here on in we can start looking at some of the bank stocks (as targets), because investment banks are going to start looking at banks going in the reverse direction. Everybody wants to be a one-stop shop.
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Six of the seven last years, technology stocks have been weak around that time period. June, July has usually been around a bottom.
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It's the attorney general and a question of revenue growth. It's a slow environment and these stocks came up pretty fast.
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Stocks do look well supported. (But) there are a large number of signals suggesting that markets have gone too far too fast (and) that investors are thinking about taking risk off the table.
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When we downgraded the PC stocks in September, we were concerned about signs in the weak consumer demand -- which has continued to deteriorate. Now we are seeing signs of this weakness spreading into small/medium corporate and of aggressive pricing in low-end servers. This weakness is bound to spread.
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We would still be buyers of oil stocks if we felt reassured that supply was going to be constrained in 2006, which we do.
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We're expecting stocks to show another rise from last week's healthy levels. There's certainly a degree of profit taking before the numbers appear after Monday's Iran-driven rally.
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Institutions and the smart money out there has been owning a lot of these higher P/E stocks, to participate in the good earnings, and they've been getting the good earnings. But the problem is that the stocks haven't been running up into those earnings. So they're not getting paid for that higher P/E risk.
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Geopolitical factors will continue to influence prices. The growth in the level of stocks might be put aside by investors as they have done over the past month if more negative news emerges from the Middle East or Venezuela.